On Demonetisation - Note-bandi plus Note-Badli - Part Three

On Demonetisation - Note-bandi plus Note-Badli - Part Three

Whilst the entire country is waiting for the currency demonetization process to end.

And... the central Govt. is highly concerned to rework the NPAs ( Non Performing Assets ) accumulated by the Banking system over the past 10-12 years. Especially, the majority of these NPAs accrue on loans doled out during the UPA-1 and UPA-2 terms. The quantum of these NPAs' could be something like INR 6-8 LAKH CRORES. According to what one hears in the media.

This accumulated NPA might be enough to tank any country's banking system and therefore the economy significantly, in due course of time.

So... in effect, perhaps, PM Modi did the best thing to correct the indulgences of the UPA-1 and UPA-2 is a question that can arise in anyone's mind ?

And... if that be the underlying root cause behind demonetisation... then do we believe that the current central Govt. might be right in taking the much required drastic action ?

Time will tell.

Curiously...
The concurrence of Trump winning on Nov 8th and PM Modi announcing demonetisation around the same date could be aptly significant.

What might have provoked the Capt. to get PM Modi into this stuff ( in case I am right on this ) prematurely, beats my reasoning.

If there is any remotest link... I am not able to decipher the same.

That aside...
when we talk of MAMMOTH SUMS OF MONEY... something like... lakhs of crores of black/ unaccounted money... let us consider the following peculiar case.

Few years back I heard a "saffron clad Guru Ji type" announcing on TV that he plans an INR FIVE or SEVEN LAKH CRORES mega temple complex in India.

<<< Can anyone imagine - INR FIVE or SEVEN LAKH CRORES mega temple complex in India. >>>

So...
Let us elaborate on this... INR FIVE or SEVEN LAKH CRORES mega temple complex thing, further.


ALL... this is planned to be ostensibly public money. To be got... off from the Indian populace. Got from... thin air... actually !!

Pray... HOW ??

Actually... five or seven lakh of this Godman's... nay Guru Ji's devotees are already all prepared with "READY MONEY"... and... will contribute INR ONE CRORE EACH on getting the green signal from the Guru Ji. i.e. on the Gurus' call for ACTION !!

And... whereupon... there is this HUGE AMOUNT of... INR FIVE or SEVEN LAKH CRORES for the temple !! All 'THIS' money already 100 % in the hands of private devotees... now goes into the hands of the Godman and... practically to his... self-appointed coterie of "blessed near and dear ones" or temple trust(ees) !!

Now, just imagine...

AS AND WHEN... some set of very smart people get this HUGE amount of money and build the INR FIVE or SEVEN LAKH CRORE TEMPLE town... then ... a self appointed TEMPLE TRUST may appear from somewhere ( perhaps all of whom could be some Guru Ji's own - near and far family members, kinsmen, well-wishers, caste-men and near friends ) takes over... FOR ETERNITY.

I guesstimate that an investment of INR FIVE OR SEVEN LAKH CRORE on this MASSIVE temple infrastructure might go on to yield these guys an ANNUAL INCOME...actually NETT PROFIT of... at least INR TEN-FIFTEEN-THIRTY THOUSANDS CRORES and UPWARDS per annum as tourists and pilgrims, from all across the nation and the entire world, flock to this WONDER/ MARVEL of a temple town.

Again...
There might be a local temple town-ship coming up there. And, real estate prices sky-rocketing overnight. Garnering and mopping up another FIVE-SEVEN-TEN-TWENTY LAKH CRORES for the town-ship private developers, over the next 10-20 year's time !! And... almost all the local businesses owned by a specific set of inter-networked people. So... few smart set of guys get to mint... all the mullah. And... quite some 'maal' too.

Btw... few years back... heard on TV... that Guru Ji proclaiming that... INR FIVE or SEVEN LAKH CRORES !! are ready for contributions at a moment's notice. Out of... thin air !!

ALL NEATLY ARRANGED !!

...
...
...

Now... does this sound like too much ?

That's 100 % correct.

SO WISHING HERE THAT...

this same type of "Guru type elements" had better invested this same amount of PUBLIC WEALTH in building... any/ all of these -

aaa) At least TWENTY to THIRTY to FORTY subsidised super-speciality WORLD-CLASS HOSPITALS ( @ INR THREE or FIVE or TEN THOUSAND CRORES EACH ) throughout the country. Perhaps in each of the Indian states.

So, that even our leaders DO NOT have to go overseas for medical treatments.

And... as such... lots of FOREX is saved to the country.

Also... we DO NOT waste precious FOREX on the, MOSTLY IMPORTED, allopathic pharma drugs and medical diagnostic equipments. Almost a majority of these imported pharma drugs have serious short/ long-term side effects... and their inorganic contents go on to clog the liver.

...

This list MIGHT also include... funding for MASSIVE R&D efforts on health-care, pharma, disease, disease-control, R&D and quest for wonder drugs, etc. !!

IS ALL THIS ABOVE NOT A WORTHWHILE EFFORT ??


QUESTION ARISES -
WHY DO SOME SORT OF PEOPLE WANT TO ACT AS ETERNAL "SPONGES" ??

ACTUALLY... SOME "SMARTY" GUYS ( IF THEY HAVE INDEED ANY POWERS ? ) MUST GIVE WITH BOTH THE HANDS OPENLY... AS ALSO... WITH AN OPEN HEART AND MIND.

SEEMS LIKE SOME FAKE GUYS "MIGHT" HAVE NONE OF... OPEN HEART AND MIND... THINGS !!

YET... DONNING SAFFRON ROBES... SOME SANATANA DHARMA GURUS ( SEEMS LIKE ) ARE ALWAYS HELL BENT TO BE-FOOL SIMPLETON INDIAN PEOPLE - to part with their cash, gold and land.

What about the elements of austerity or penance or sadhana in the lives of fake sanatana dharma gurus ? What to speak of their chelas / disciples ?

Question arises -
Not sure... if any of such people solve the problems of others or they end up solving their own problem... viz.  desire for massive wealth and loyalest people as their fiercest followers, herd-mentality-crowd ever-swelling at their feet, etc.


bbb) Create at least TEN super technical/ Engineering/ R&D institues of world class repute. In the country !!

Even at @ INR TEN to FIFTEEN THOUSAND CRORES apiece... these might go on to produce gems... DIAMONDS of alumni along the way. And... even one of these diamond alumni might go onto change the fate of the entire country... nay mankind.

CAN ANYONE... ESP. "SUCH TYPE OF GURU JI" I AM ALLUDING TO... TELL- WHY ALL OF US INDIANS HAVE TO LINE UP IN WESTERN UNIVERSITIES FOR HIGHER EDUCATION AND THEREAFTER... IN PURSUIT OF SOME HIGH PAYING JOBS THERE ? AND... SETTLE DOWN IN FOREIGN LANDS ?

IN THE SAME PROCESS... INVESTING INDIAN CAPITAL ( i.e. IN TERMS OF MONEY SPENT IN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS EDUCATION AND RESIDENCE ) AT A FOREIGN LOCATION ? MUST WE NOT SEE THIS ACTION... AS AN INVESTMENT IN ANOTHER COUNTRY"S EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM/ IN THE R&D EFFORTS/ AND THEIR ECONOMY ??

AND...
THIS "OVERSEAS DEVELOPED INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL" IS GENERALLY MOSTLY USED IN OVERSEAS ( MOSTLY WESTERN ) COUNTRIES. TO STRENGTHEN THESE COUNTRIES' ECONOMIES !! IN EFFECT, THESE PEOPLE BECOME THE PARTNERS IN THE NATIONAL PROGRESS/ DEVELOPMENT OF THESE COUNTRIES !!

WHY SO ?? !!

DO people like him and his kind think that ALL this is OK and normal ?? !! The way forward for our country and the country men ??

Or, making massive temple towns worth INR 5-10 lakh crores is a normal thing and the way forward for India ?

Do we expect that such religious / spiritual mentors gives us Indian people their own view-point... nay... 'gyaan', publicly... in this regards ?

What sayst ...  Sir ?

REVEREND GURU-TYPE JI... YOUR THOUGHTS... PUBLICLY... ON THIS... PLEASE !!

PLEASE... SPELL SOME VISION... FOR OUR COUNTRY !!

AND... IN CASE THAT THERE IS PLAUSIBLY NONE... THEN MAY I SUGGEST THAT... FOR THE INR FIVE or SEVEN LAKH CRORE TEMPLE COMPLEX... WHY DON'T THE TYPES OF YOU - PLEASE GET THIS HUGE AMOUNT OF NEEDED FUNDS... EXCLUSIVELY SOURCED FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, AS PERHAPS ONE-TIME CHARITY !!
I BELIEVE THAT YOU GUYS MUST BE GOOD ENOUGH TO GET ALL THE FOREIGN FUNDS... i.e. $$'s FLOWING IN OUR COUNTRY ??

PLEASE DO... ASAP !! THAT MIGHT BE BEST. Much better than squeezing the Indian populace.

RATHER THAN, IN ANY WAY, SPONGING THE INDIAN POPULACE ( my take ) FOR THIS and SIMILAR SUCH PROJECTS.

Alternate route for the likes of you...
I MOST humbly yet out-rightly suggest... why don't "the types of you" get ALL this money solely from the PANDA ( i.e. priestly class ) samaj abounding in all the Hindu holy spots/ temples around the country !!

MAY YOU PLEASE DO THIS ?

For... is it NOT true that...
The PANDAs ( i.e. the priestly class ) are fleecing... extracting perhaps LAKHS of CRORES every year from the servile and superstitious Indian populace. In the name of - blind faith and trust. Sometimes/ majorily on outdated and obsolete rituals and karma-kands.

Herd mentality is the root cause.

Anyone... can see this rampant practice around most of our our major holy ( i.e. Teerth ) spots and temples. All... in the name of blind faith... the venerable Pandas armed with sweet tongue... entice or force on the populace - religious "this and that" rituals... and... people are enticed/ forced to... spill-over their pockets... and part with their hard-earned moneys, to these smart guys. This is going on since the past almost one-two thousand years. And, this is slowly... destroying the Sanatana Dharma.

...
...
...

As an aside -

I think... some Guru Ji's.. son had been lately ( some years back ) been in the news is MORE right !! I guess.

But... in the news... for ALL the wrong reasons.

And... can anyone imagine... these sort of people want to play with Indian wealth to the tune of INR 5-10 lakh crores ??

I cite this specific case as an example... an eye opener... for the masses. Who ALL might be called upon to invest an amount of INR FIVE / SEVEN LAKH CRORES in mega temple complexes !!

If this is NOT questioned and the motive+motivation well understood - then tomorrow someone else might come up with an INR TEN or TWENTY LAKH CRORES TEMPLE PLAN in some other part of the country !!

This is way too much !

Demonetisation of currency notes is an opportunity to think back and reflect on the quantum of money we Indians waste ( which passes onto other hands thereby making them wealthy ) in terms of religious rituals, dogmas, blind faith, unnecessary karma-kands, etc.


Sometimes this question resounds again and again...
Shall majority of the Sanatana Dharmis convert religions to escape the classical priestly class tyranny and become a Sikh ?

And, go on to chant "Wahe Guru" and... BOLE SO ... !! SAT SRI A-KAAL !!


ccc) The entire country can be turned into 100 % organic, 100 % non-GMO with 90-100 % vedic humped cows giving best quality milk to almost a good part of the entire populace.

Bringing almost 120+ crores of people health, wealth and better quality of life !!

with this kind of money. And the evil pharma might be as good as near dead.


ddd) Spending... say... INR THREE to FOUR LAKH CRORES on defence R&D. And... much needed... internal defence design, development, prototyping, productions, etc.

...

Btw... the wish-list can be ALL endless.

I CANNOT COMPREHEND USING INR FIVE OR SEVEN LAKH CRORES FOR BUILDING A MASSIVE TEMPLE COMPLEX + TOWN !!

Can anyone ?? ...

Explore the... COVERT GRAND idea/ reasoning/ intention/ motive/ motivation behind this MEGA design / plan ??

Some root cause analysis requires that one gets inside the head of this grand planner. And, analyse each and every thoughts.

...
...
...


And... to add...

I have nothing personal against any Guru, pseudo-Guru or Guru-types, even Guru Ghantals... or even any of the Panda-s and any and all members of the priestly class. Never had !!

I bow to all of them. And, am NOT here to judge any of these fellow human beings. Some of whom might proclaim themselves as God-incarnates or else their followers might do so on their behalf !!

In that case - let that be so - for the followers.

...

I am just making a point... non-chalantly ... what SOME set of the people DO or INTEND to do with ALL the PUBLIC money they might be commanding, indirectly.

Actually massive quantum of... ever trickling... pouring... flowing... Indian WEALTH !!

I guess... is it that these guys are there only for... laying hands on the... public money ?

By using quite some... old books... be a rook... and, using ALL the hook and/ or crook ?

...

And... our country has lots and lots of wealth... all scattered around.

And... there are plunderers on the prowl !! And... it is NOT so easy to discern these plunderers. All are clothed differently.

Each ones... ways and means... are different. Way too... different.

...
...
...


Not to forget...

Even... ISK...N ?? is into the BUSINESS of building MASSIVE/ MAMMOTH temples. Around the country... and the world.

Almost ALL of these temple complexes are built using the public money and soliciting MASSIVE donations on "this and that" head. Even the land is got for almost free from the Governments, often-times, at throw-away prices.

And... once the whole temple structure is ready... the same is promoted as a place of pilgrimmage/ a tourist spot/ an architectural marvel, etc. And... these HOLY tourist spots... go on to spin in ENDLESS wealth. That all keeps on piling up and ON... year after year. Almost...  to the tune of THOUSANDS of crores every year !!

Can anyone imagine... ALL of which public money... going into the hands of the private players/ hands in cahoots with a set of priestly class, who all have near monopoly in this entire business !!

And... these people use these public funds... nay WEALTH to build.. even more MAMMOTH temples. And... private temple-owned high-end properties.

Now...
What's the use of wasting HUGE amounts of money ( = WEALTH )  in temples ?? !!

All in the name of religion, dogmas, rituals and blind faith ??

Wherein only a close set of highly inter-networked people DO MAKE ALL the real 'maal' and the 'mullah' ??

...
...
...

The list can be an endless one.

And... SOME VIGILANTE journos can easily establish that this WHOLE business, is built around BLIND FAITH and herd mentality.

This includes even quite some retards who are basically unemployable guys... but go on to make a living @ astrology as a veneered astrologer. I had the misfortune of meeting many such folks. Some of these mangy folks... have their foot-print in destroying people by injecting them with either down-right fear ( Shani, Rahu, Ketu, Shani's SADE-SATI ) or complete complascence ( everything is all right/ great ) as regards the future.

Btw... I certainly admire the SIKHS for NOT believing in astrology.
...

Further ! let us tabulate...

The amount of money/ wealth the priestly class accumulates all over the country /world over a decade's time, into their personal coffers, might be something like -

@ ONE LAKH CRORES per YEAR = INR TEN LAKH CRORES over a decade's time frame !!

@ TWO LAKH CRORES per YEAR = INR TWENTY LAKH CRORES over a decade's time frame !!

@ THREE LAKH CRORES per YEAR = INR THIRTY LAKH CRORES over a decade's time frame !!

@ FOUR LAKH CRORES per YEAR = INR FORTY LAKH CRORES over a decade's time frame !!

ALL THIS IS 100 % possible and TRUE !! Truly stating !!


My own rough guesstimate on this is -

@ THREE to FIVE LAKH CRORES per YEAR = INR THIRTY to FIFTY LAKH CRORES over a decade's time frame !!

And... I am not considering the compounding factored into this.

Can a set of people TABULATE and QUANTIFY, PLEASE !!

As an eye opener !!

This is a MUCH NEEDED exercise. Some nosey set of journos... ought to get into this thoroughly.


ADDENDA -
This is an invited post. Invited ...by invading privacy. My understanding is - of course the dalits and the so called low castes cannot be in a position to effect this. This is possible by the active backing of some of the smart political-minded guys. That I may clearly explain - per my perception and observation.

< EndOfPost >

On Demonetisation... Note-ban-di plus Note-Bad-li - Part Two

On Demonetisation... Note-ban-di plus Note-Bad-li - Part Three

The GoI invalidated currency worth ( nearly ) INR 15 lakh crores from the economy on the 8th of NOV, 2016. This is about 86 % - 87 % worth of the free float of currencies. The impacted currencies are the INR 500 and INR 1000 denominations alone.

Effectively 86 % - 87 % of the currencies have lost their existence. And the liquidity, initially, was impacted by that much amount.

The liquidity still remains... way far from healthy.

...

This entire stuff seems like a black swan event with massive implications in every which way for the country and the entire world.

So... a few contextual ideations follow -


(( ONE ))


Now...
The Indian population might be something around 128 crores.

Considering that a typical family might have ( on the average 4-6-8 members ).

Can we assume that this translates into a family unit size all across India ? , quantified as -

@ 4 members per family == 32 crore family units

@ 5 members per family == 25.6 crore family units

@ 6 members per family == 21 crore family units

@ 7 members per family == 18.3 crore family units

@ 8 members per family == 16 crore family units


Let's assume that we got approx. 24 crore family units ( @ 5 members per family ) in the country.

Now...
On the average if these 24 crore family units across the nation keep some paper based currency with them ( not in the banking system ) ON their person or in their premises, then -

@ INR 10,000/- per family unit => this is equivalent to INR 240,000/- CRORES with the entire population of the country.

@ INR 20,000/- per family unit => this is equivalent to INR 480,000/- CRORES with the entire population of the country.

@ INR 50,000/- per family unit => this is equivalent to INR 1,200,000/- CRORES with the entire population of the country.

So, what BALANCE stays with the banks and the banking system and the overall Govt. machinery is for everyone to make out.

Again - with 1 USD == INR 68 ( approx. ) presently.

INR 10,000 = USD 147
INR 20,000 = USD 294
INR 50,000 = USD 735

Btw...
if we assume that each Indian family unit has USD 500 apiece ( = INR 34,000 ) on them ( out of the banking system ). Then actually the currency in the hand of all the Indian family units alone may be = INR 34,000 X 24 crores =  INR 8,16,000 crores ( nearly - INR Eight Lakh Crores ).

The balance stays with the RBI coffers, banking system, diverse Govt. organizations, private Organizations, enterprises, etc.

Now... any/ all of the "inter and intra-family unit" transactions contribute significantly towards the economic resilience and, therefore, the GDP of the entire nation. << NOTE and MARK THIS. >>

And... taking into account what lies with the RBI chests, banks, state/ centrally owned/ managed institutions/ organizations, financial institutions, mega corporations, enterprises and an array of entrepreneurs - one may easily make out what may be the quantum of the "free flowing currency" that may be going around.

Also this might throw quite some light on the extent of... fresh capital, loans, etc.


(( TWO ))


In general, apart from those having money deposited with the banks, people do keep ready cash with themselves. Just, in case. This is the norm since ages.

Additionally, people do keep sort of universally acceptable "readily convertible cash equivalent" with themselves in the form of... GOLD. Gold... as a store of value, mostly on their person. In the case of emergency - this can be easily redeemable, for easy cash, anywhere in the world.

Notably...
In fact, the per head banking penetration across the country is really pathetic. The same holds for the number of installed ATMs across the country.

Again...
The quantum of cash that people keep with themselves depends on diverse factors. Too many to elaborate, fully, here. And could range from - wages, earnings, 'meant for regular weekly/ monthly/ quarterly expenses', contingency funds, windfall gains, life savings, widow pensions, etc. etc.

Further...
The quantum of money in terms of cash ( apart from those deposited in the banks ) that any individual, household / family unit or business unit, etc. keeps at any instance of time may vary from -

INR 100 ( say, for a beggar on the street ) to INR 1000s of CRORES ( for big corporate stalwarts ).

There are quite a few instances that some firms or people keep unaccounted money in the form of cash, with them, to the tune of thousands of crores.

AS SUCH -
The Govt. MUST legislate a fixed or variable celing wrt the quantam of "PAPER CASH" anyone can keep on his person/ premises.

Especially wrt the new form/ format/ scale of the "electronic cash" that is going to be espoused belows.


(( THREE ))


NOT TO FORGET -
Whilst, at the same time it is quite possible that nearly 80 % ( = 103 crores ) or more of the population in this country barely meet their ends and somehow eke out their existence. And might have some paltry amount of cash on their person. What to speak of any access to the banking system. Most of these folks stay in the country-side i.e. majorily the rural areas.

Which all put together might not exceed INR 50,000 to 100,000 crore. ( @ INR 500/- or INR 1,000/- per person ).

For a family unit having five members this translates to... INR 2,500/- or INR 5,000/- per family unit.

Better still figure could be... @ INR 1,500/- or INR 2,000/- per person = might not exceed INR 150,000 to 200,000 crore.

In fact... actually... even this number... is actually a tall order for the BPL ( Below Poverty Line ) people in this country. Crores of who all live in abject poverty and barely meet or eke out their livelihood. Perhaps passing off as daily wage earners to meet their ends.

Note-ban-di + Note-bad-li might have destroyed innumerable such unskilled, semi-skilled, etc. daily/ weekly or seasonal wage earners and their families.

Was this factor factored in and its' impact or lack thereof understood by the authorities ? remains a moot question.

In the eastern part of the country - huge pool of migratory and seasonal laborers are all honing/ honed back to their home state. With no work for them - along with their families, eating on their insignificant life's savings. With no new work awaiting them. This is going to impact/ already impacting the local state Govt. and the state economy significantly.

...
...
...

IMPORTANTLY -

Whilst... going gung ho on note-ban-di + note-bad-li - the GoI has completely failed to highlight and take into active account that majority of the populace in the country are illiterate. And... to be digitally literate is beyond the scope and capabilities of more than 90 % to 95 % of the population ( my guesstimate ) at this instance of time.

Effectively... in real technical terms ( based on the nuances of Information Technology Security )... this number may exceed GREATER THAN 99.9 % of the populace <<- VERY IMPORTANT NOTE HERE.

In a general sense...
do I suggest that out of ( approx. ) 24 crore or so households in the country... at max. 40-50 lakhs to up to 1 crore household may be digitally literate to some or greater extent. ( Some real rough extra-polations here ).

That may mean that, at best, NO GREATER THAN almost 3 - 5 crore people may be digitally literate to a reasonable extent at this point of time. This is... out of a figure of 128 crores.


(( FOUR ))


PERCEIVED PROBLEM STATED HERE -

The REAL problem is TWO FOLDS -

1) Massive amount of money deposited or lying with the banks. In which case this results in potentially massive amounts of corruption, in the form of untenable and unrecoverable loans doled out to people/ institutes/ enterprises/ organizations by the banking officials. Almost a good part of which might not be easily recoverable. And, turns up as mammoth NPA on the banks's balance sheets.

( The problem is - the banking officials are never personally responsible for any loan going bad. This must change, and there must be accountability with those doling out loans. )

The same / similar situation we are witnessing now. Owing to the banking largesse doled out during the UPA terms spanning a decade.

Evidently... apart from the economy under-going roller-coaster ride... over the past 10-12 years time frame... in congruence to the international economic turmoil witnessed... and... again... that still remains to be witnessed.

There might be quite some dubious characters in the banking fraternity for sure. And- SOME of such ever knowledgeable banksters in cahoots with wily businessmen and greedy politicians know quite well - how, how much, when and where to pull the strings and to what extent. And all the concerned guys ( in quite some cases ) know quite well the extent of the gains and losses, over a period of time.

Evidently... the country has got massive banking NPAs to deal with. And... there seems to be no way out !!


2) Secondly, massive amount of money in the form of cash hoarded ( therefore - of stagnant nature ) by any of - individuals/ family units/ companies/ enterprises/ organizations, etc. poses a serious challenge to the overall economic well being and developmental agenda of the nation. Definitely impacts on the national security, as such.

( Developmental agendas... as envisaged and laid out by the planning and executive function of the Govt. ).

This impacts the overall liquidity situation. And... the stagnant cash sitting out of the banking system and out of the free monetary float of the nation-wide economic process is akin to stagnant water... which has the potential to create definite rot in the economic well being of the entire system.

In as much as these constrict and restrict the liquidity situation in the country. Which is bad for the economy.

The more the liquidity... the greater the chances that the factors of production ( of wealth ) may be ( to a greater extent ) aptly utilised for new wealth creation; therefore, accretion of the wealth of the nation to a ( much ) greater extent. This eventually translates into an ever expanding GDP. Translates into... greater opportunities and growth for all and sundry.



(( FIVE ))


CHALLENGE is... how to achieve that ?

Does the digitization of cash transactions leading to a completely cashless system ( as envisaged, planned and rolled out by the GoI ) solve this problem in any manner whatsoever ?

Hardly. Perhaps to some certain extent - definitely. But that might not be 100 % foolproof. For...

There is a massive risk element pertaining to cyber security involved. Which is exteremely dangerous indeed.

When we talk of cyber security... the latest is...
There is active talk and accusations of former first lady Hillary Clinton losing out owing to Russia induced mass hacking that led Trump to win the US presidential elections.

And... the Americans are way to ahead of us in terms of cyber security. Every which way. And, years ahead of us.

NOTABLY -
Any one can be set up, framed and proved guilty for any cyber misdemeanor that (s)he might have never been involved in.

His/ her life destroyed in the process.

Remember the "HeartBleed" flaw. Undoubtedly... there are front-doors and... there are back-doors.

And... again... most of the hardware, firmware, critical networking infra-structures back-bone required for all this cashless system that the Govt. plans to actively roll-out - are almost 100 % sourced from overseas markets.

Undoubtedly... there are front-doors and... there are back-doors in a vast majority of these imported wares. All of which might be beyond the knowledge, scope of understanding of our own native critical cyber security experts. Thereby evading their knowledge.

This is akin to having sentry at the bank's front door, whilst the back door remains open and unguarded, unknown to the front dooe sentry. The contrary situation might be true, as well.

I hope this point is noted. And well.


(( SIX ))


Importantly - most of the hardware for the infrastructure is surely to be sourced from overseas. And... these pose a severe form of national security risk... down the road. I think the Govt. must take that into due account.

Again... going cashless might involve massive amounts of (c)overt costs in terms of new(er) equipments to be procured / purchased. For... the whole end-to-end landscape. All which might be a tedious and extremely costly on the national import bill, on a year-to-year basis.

...

In effect a cashless economy, though desirable, is fraught with great/ greater/ greatest dangers. If things ever go wrong ( and there are chances that any hidden enemy country or a small group of highly skilled individuals of the STUXNET creator types can inflict incalculable losses to the economy by targeting the bare basics cyber infrastructure of the country. VERY IMPORTANT ) then it might be difficult to absorb the extent of the loss to / in the economy.

The only false positive that seems apparently plausible in all this is... the tax base might increase for the GoI, if the system goes cashless. This may be likely.

Frankly -
There could have been many other ways and means to achieve that.

Going full cashless all of a sudden is akin to - putting all ze eggs in one big basket. This must be a gradual process. Backed by strong IT security experts. Self manufactured hardware, firmware, networking gears and servers, etc. Highly secured military grade network directly and partly under a Cyber Command and Control of the Armed Forces.


Comprendo **Fatichar ( some random persons I think of ... in my mind ) !!

<< **Fatichar => phut-teacher => teacher gone phut i.e. running amok => Guru Ghantal >>


(( SEVEN ))


PROBABLE SOLUTION ( actually, one PART THEREOF. One major part of probably others to follow. )

So...

let us consider here-withal an alternate means of keeping and dis-seminating cash in pretty much a cashless manner.

We consider the specific case of -

a) Fully personalized though freely exchangeable electronic cash ( 100 % usable and redeemable cash in the public domain ),

b) eCurrency or eCash denominations of the value ( say ) = INR 5,000/- , INR 10,000/- , INR 20,000/- , INR 25,000/- , INR 50,000/- , INR 100,000/-
all of which can be safely kept on the person and in the premises ( say ) even in the open. And, no burglar or dacoit ( = bandit ) can dare to snatch/ loot the same and take it away.

The reason for issuance of high valued e-cash is - this liberates the lower denomination currencies from hoarding at physical ( non-banking ) premises in terms of huge black money hoard. Generally ill-gotten gains piled up... are stagnant for several years and dampens the free flow of currency. And, this definitely impacts the quantum of the free flowing currency.

So, eCurrency may result in more and effective liquidity in the economy. Provided the Govt. puts a cap on the extent of paper cash one can keep, store and carry .

Results in greater transparency. Thereby Govt./ RBI/ the Banking System has greater clarity on the money supply chain.

IMPORTANTLY -
It may NOT be ANYMORE easy for someone to amass INR 50/ 300/ 1000 crores in INR 10, 20, 50 and 100 denominations notes. Assuming that INR 500, INR 1000 and INR 2000 note denominations are all withdrawn by the GoI in the oncoming days.


c) Paper &/or plastics based e-Currency. Say - of the size of the banking traveller's cheque. Say postcard sized or envelope sized. Any of which can be safely kept or stacked in the shirt pocket. Mutiple coloured. Color coded based on denomination.

May be savings type or for regular business ( current account related ) transactions. And color coded accordingly.

May be plastic sheeted and securedly tamper-proofed and laminated at the point/ instance of issuance by the local bankster. The local banker gets the same e-cash from the RBI state or regional chest for disbursal to the customers.


d) The e-currency is TIED / PEGGED to one's mobile phone. In the backend Banking database. This is a TRANSACTIONS based e-cash. For transferring the money or even exchanging the same for lesser or greater denominated cash/ e-cash - one's 'linked' mobile phone MUST be MANDATORILY used for effecting any/ all the transactions.

More on this later.


e) The e-cash must be necessarily printed with ( say - a 10 digit number ) a machine-readable BAR code as also another unique ( say - a 10 digit number ) machine-readable QR code.

So we get a 10 + 10 = 20 digit unique serialization number for any denomination and piece of eCash.

Again there may be alphabetic or alphanumeric 3 or 5 units serial number on the e-cash.


f) The mobile transactions enabled eCash or eCurrency must have any/ all of the following electronic chips/ sub-systems/ systems on it -

1) RFID ( Radio Frequency ID ) tag

2) Zigbee or Bluetooth or some such NFC ( Near Field Communication ) highly secure comm. technology resident on the e-cash.

3) Some communication technology to link with the bare basics LINKED or COUPLED mobile phone ( ones already massively prevalent in the Indian scenario and scope ) may be there.

The bare basics mobile phone may have old style  GSM, GPRS, CDMA, 2G, etc. technologies. Again, solution/ services for the 3G, 4G, etc. technologies must also be catered to.

4) A remotely, wirelessly controllable, conditionally operable ON/ OFF GPS style ( using our own Indian GPS / GLONASS type system ) chip/ sub-system/ system that resides on the e-cash.

There MAY be TWO set of denominations of the e-cash. One without GPS ( Indian ) chip inbuilt. Others with resident GPS ( Indian ) system built in. This provides the exact geographical co-ordinates of the e-cash. And, this can track the eCash movement or actual location.

A customer can request any of these two flavors of e-Cash from the bank for keeping in his physical premises for use... as READY cash. Both varieties of eCurrency provide GREATEST security to the eCurrency owner against theft, looting, dacoity, etc.

Simultaneously, the Govt./ Security agencies/ bankster may provide the customer with GPS enabled e-cash to track the customer and the actual location of the e-Cash.


g) The customer taking hold of the e-cash from the bank must request the desired / a certainly denominated e-Cash from the bank.

The banking system ( this includes the RBI and the central Govt. ) must use the customer's unique identification credentials - like the Aadhar card number or the PAN number, etc. to internally generate a unique 10-12 digit serial number eCash linked ( internal use ) identification number for this customer.

Now, there may be two cases -
for multiple e-cash requests the bank may use the SAME unique "one-time-mapped serial number id" of the customer.

Else the banking system may generate A SET OF unique serial number ids for the customer ( all of which are mapped to his unique personal identification credentials ) for a set of requested e-cash.

Another ( much better or the best ) option is - whilst the moment the banker issues an e-cash then at the point of issuing the e-cash, the banker logs into the official system the unique identification credentials of the banking customer and thereby thus ties the unique customer identification number with the issued unique e-cash(es).

I guess the second method is MOST apt. The best.


h) There may be different flavors of e-cash. One which generates an interest ( say @ 2 % - 3 % ) even if the same is kept at one's premise rather than be held by the bank. The e-cash may be part of the Bank's virtual cash pool. Though for the localized bank branch the e-cash is actually - disseminated and fragmented cash not particularly being held by the bank. Matter of fact, the entire banking system may consider the eCash as such.


IMPORTANT -
Going this way, MUST the Govt. dilute the clerical low grade jobs at the bank ? Which add none of value addition, in general. Bland observation.

This way - the entire banking operations at a branch may be fragmented. Say a massive bank branch may better NEED to cut staff and operations by half, one third or one fourth - this entails greater banking efficiency and reach. This means more bank branches may spring up everywhere around, even in the country-side. After the bank's operational and staff expenses are cut significantly. Might mean more fresh ATMs installed around the country.

One of the key banking functions would THEN become "NOTE CHANGING" i.e. converting e-cash to cash or vice versa. Which even anyone around the nook and corner can effectively get into. Thereby earn INR 5/ 10/ 20/ 25/ 50 on per transactions basis. Thereby easily earning couple of hundred ruppees sitting at his/ her premises every day. This may add up nicely over a month.

...

Using of the issued out e-cash -
the bank may use the same "not in use" e-cash ( residing at the customer's premises. Customer holds eCash on account of any future or contingency usage ) for lending out money i.e. for giving out loans.

Example - Say a loan that seeks 100 units of e-cash of a certain denomination might make use of a piping queue, of the First In First Out ( FIFO ) type. This piped queue may have a capacity of 150 or 200 units.
Those eCash at the head of the queue get used. And these "used" eCash units earn an interest. Others do NOT. Say - 100 units earn an interest of 1.5 % - 2 % - 3 % . Whilst the other 50 or 100 units await their turn to earn an interest.

As and when any eCash unit by any customer is used up/ diluted ... i.e. the "used" unit vis-a-vis an active loan is actually used up by the end user ( holding the e-cash ) as parts of any transaction. This same unique e-cash is removed from the loan pool/ system. And another uniquely id-ed e-cash in the system, at the head of the queue, is enrolled in the "doled out loan pool by the bank" thereby earing interest = cash for the end user and the banking system, rather than sitting dud at his/ her premises.

Compare this smart and productive eCurrency to the other 'dud' cash or e-cash that generate nothing. And, sit at one's premises idle.


i) There may be smart-phones that may be able to scan the bar codes and the QR code and using secured transmissions and transactions the e-cash may be transferred to another user holding another mobile number.

The transfer ought to be a two step process - 1) physically exchanging hands, 2) Transferring the electronic ownership credentials of the eCash.

The transaction makes use of the serial numbers on the e-cash.

When we make use of bare basic mobile phones that are perhaps of circa 2000-2010 ( using 2G and GPRS ). Then in that case the eCash holder ( = owner ) has to use the printed serializations numbers ( 10 + 10 = 20 , say ) on the e-cash to consummate the electronic wireless transaction.

Simultaneously, ALSO making use of the recipient party's mobile phone number to whom the e-cash is desired to be transferred.

Say... some key steps could be -

1) One dials to a mobile gateway using one's registered mobile number

2) One keys in the barcoded serial number ( all digits printed below the bar code ), followed by

3) one keys in the QR code digits ( all digits printed below the QR code ), followed by

4) Keying in the recipient's mobile phone number, followed by

5) Further one may or must be prompted to key in a PIN to finalize the transaction.

6) Alternatively, one may be prompted to key in security digits from a hard-copy of a matrix/ grid - digits from specific ( row, column ). This secret hard copy of personalised matrix had been sent by the banking system to the customer earlier by courier, for safe keeping. The customer is now required to provide the ( row, column ) digits for completing the transaction.

Since, once the customer keys in a specific ( row, column ) based digits. After one time usage - the same ( row, column ) may NOT be sought again by the requesting /confirming system.

7) Lastly, the new owner of the eCash or eCurrency takes hold of the same from the last owner who transferred the money.

Is this system akin to 24 hours always ON banking sans banking hassles ?



j) There may be PIN ( Personal Idetification Numbers ) or a password to effect the e-Cash transaction.

The PIN may be a one time expirable PIN. May be re-set-able PIN.

Again... it may be part of a 21 X 21, 36 X 36, 50 X 50 or 100 X 100 or 128 X 128 or 256 X 256 matrix.

So... a transaction may demand to put in the PIN derived from - Row 99, Column 33. of the grid matrix.
Followed by Row 37, Column 255 ( say ).

That row or column may contain either 2, 3 or 4 digit randomly generated numbers. The same matrix is generated afresh by the Banking System and is distinct for each banking eCash customer.

Perhaps may be issued against each unit of eCash ? This might be too much. Better is - issue one matrix for a unique customer no matter how many eCash unit (s)he holds.

Now, to complete the transaction -
the customer looks up the harcopy matrix for the requested numbers... keys in the same...
This one time PIN/ password is to be sent over the air ONE TIME only. Then this row, column combo request is NEVER to be used again. The same is sent to a back-end database for query and verification of the transaction.

The one time to be used over the air digits ( all randomly generated for a customer ) are marked as USED now. Never used ever again. This maintains the security of the entire e-commerce or e-banking transaction.

Actually mobile-commerce or m-banking transactions.


(( EIGHT ))


The e-cash and cash put out by the RBI/ Banking System in the public domain MUST have a definitive period of existence = term of expiry.

Say - one banking user goes to the bank and requests an e-cash that has a validity of 2/ 5/ 15/ 30/ 45/ 60/ 90/ 180/ 365/ 1000 days alone. Again - the eCash may have a lifetime validity.

At the end of those many days. The e-cash becomes invalid. And, the same amount of money linked with the eCash or eCurrency may be reverted back to the customer's bank account. Thereby earning the customer higher interest rate.

NOTE -
The eCash customer pays some banking charges for the "secure" and "personalized" money / currency doled out to him/ her by the bank manager/ staffer.

The Bank Staffer issuing the eCash may use his personal seal/ signature to authenticate the eCash. A set of two-three banking staffers may effect this, this ensures greater security. And, shared responsibility while issuing eCash.


(( NINE ))

The USP of this entire eCurrency system espoused and briefly outlined is... at any instance of time... the Govt. / RBI/ the Banking System/ the Security Agencies, etc. can order a FULL and in-depth inquiry. With definitive logs being maintained at the district, state and national level for any all eCurrecny ever issued and their "ACTUAL" movement.

The banking paper-based logs MUST be kept at each and every instance of the eCash transactions.

<< THIS IS VITALLY IMPORTANT >>



(( TEN ))


ADDENDA -
The GoI MUST mull putting out customized color coded notes ( say red or orange ) that have a certain life span validity in the disturbed / terrorist infested AND impacted regions of the country ( whether that be Kashmir valley or the North Eastern States ). The currency notes must have markers that tells that the currency is to be predominantly or necessarily used in the disturbed region, alone. And, the normal Indian currency must be sparingly used or NOT be allowed to be used in the disturbed districts and adjacent areas. This helps in security management. Even to track the funding and channeled thereof, going to outlawed terror groups.

( Frankly - the cashless system as espoused by the GoI is most apt for such regions.)

Further the same currencies may have bar-codes as well as QR codes. And, a stack of such currencies MUST be machine readable.

Further - these currencies MUST lapse out over certain period of time. Say - one, two or three years. There may be an expiry date associated with the currency. Before which time the same must be redeemed or deposited in the banking system. There may be a grace period of a month or two on this expiry date.

Say - a customer deposits a bundle of currency notes ( of 100 ) in the bank, then the banking staffer must be able to put this bundle in a currency reader machine. And, this electro-mechanical currency counter + reader + tabulater machine MUST read each individual piece of currency id and the same data may be put in the interfaced computing system of the bank. Tagged against that specific customer.

The same process may be repeated whilst a bundle of currency is paid out to a suspect person. This enables in tracking his/ her expenditures and contacts, and the channels thereof.

This might prove in quite handy in many ways. For extrapolation.


(( ELEVEN ))


There is an URGENT need for a military grade hyper secure CYBER network infrastructure spanning the entire country. 100 % secured. Each district, city, town and village must be fully covered.

The same network must be manned, managed and administered by the best brains in the IT Systems and IT Security landscape. This is extremely vital.

There MUST be a separate Cyber Security Command and Control of the armed forces.

This wing of the armed forces ought to be more powerful than any wings of the armed forces, we might have seen till date. Utmost need of the hour.

To depend on others or extraneous forces to aid or facilitate on Cyber Security might be nothing short of foolhardiness.

< EndOfPost >

Demonetisation aka Note-Bandi - Part 1

Demonetisation aka Note-Bandi - Part 1


A notably apt recollection -

Almost 2-3 decades back in some professional educational institute wherein fresh students from all across the country flocked to the learn the ropes of their trade...

They all had run into a common problem... real messy food served to them in the mess. And, this was getting on everyone's nerves... and health. So, a few dynamic smarties ganged up with some actionable plan... and... decided to do some rabble rousing... i.e. incited all the fellow mates ( just like the Captain and ALL his visibly invisible or 'vice versa' mates ). The net result was that these guys organized a massive bandh of the lecture halls and the hostel messes... for a single day. Boycotting classes and gheraoing the administrative block and the concerned college authorities. This whole drama commenced from morning to late into the night.

With the result that almost 400-500 students went without food for the entire day. By the time these students finished with the protest activity ( between 2100 to 2400 hours ) there was NO food to be had anywhere around. So, almost everyone went to bed... dejected, hungry and tired.

Dejected...
Since... the authorities yielded nothing substantive. It might have been... more of pep talk and promises galore.

( It is another matter that the gherao = bandh yielded almost negligible tangible gains. If I recall correctly. )

But... did I say... all the rabble-roused and proactive souls went empty stomach to bed ?

Well NO !!

Now...
The coterie of smarties who were the master-mind behind the whole effort... towards the end of the day-long bandh or... after the tired students ( taking turns... sitting day long under the glaring sun ) dispersed late in the night; flocked together and huddled silently ( each one of these guys barging in unobserved one by one ) and had silent feast with the goodies they had purchased and stocked up well in advance. Anticipating that what a day-long impromptu-ly announced bandh ( plan hatched, action led, rabble-rousing enforced by them ) might entail, at the end of the day.

So... whilst almost the whole flock led by the smarties ( sans the smarties ) went to bed almost hungry... the smarties had some 'real' feast.

Now... IMPORTANT here -
It hardly matters whether the 'smarties' were... way to well... all gorged up... at the outset of the 'effort'... ELSE... at the end of the 'effort'... had feast.

NOW...
This true incident serves as an eye opener and has great potential equivalence/ congruence as regards the BJP + RSS action on demon-eti-sati-on.


FRANKLY...
The former PM Dr M.M. Singh is 100 % correct in voicing the opinion of the suffering masses. And... his words actually describe the situation in true light. 100 % .

Is this breach of trust by the BJP + RSS on the nation ?

The answer seems like affirmative.


Few thought on... DEMONETISATION... ACTUALLY -

1) sounds like a 'surgical strike' on ALL the non-BJP and non-RSS entities. So that it takes them eons to recover. Considering that UP and Punjab elections are near hand. And it requires some real cash to fight any electoral polls. Without money... the opposition might be trounced.

2) This has, in effect, made hell the lives of almost 99 % + of the population. Some way or the other. People are silently suffering... in angst... with only faith in God and hope in the future.

3) Completely derailed the economy out of which it might take couple of years to recover.

4) Former PM Dr MM Singh voiced the concern that the economic growth might shrink by 2 % odd points. My gut instinct suggests that it might be way much worse off than that. Perhaps... in the negative territory already.

5) BJP and RSS and the smarties would NOT and NEVER harm their strategic interests. Whilst knowing that what potentially lies ahead. ( I understand that the Captain and his mates might have forced the PM to enforce note-bandh-i in such an unprepared manner. Why ? Why so much of hurry ? What's the take away for the Captain and mates ? )

6) The sole aim of this entire drive seems to be... going digital. Digital currency, e-wallet, plastic debit and credit cards, payment by/ thru' mobile phones ( m-commerce ).

These guys TOTALLY forget the economic losses accruing out of the cyber-crime in the e-commerce domain. That might run into several tens of billions of USD ... year after years. And... maybe spiral out of control over the oncoming decades. Esp. in a massive country like India. Where people are still struggling for basic amenities in life.

RECAP -
Is that not the reason that BJP chose the mission - "ghar-ghar sandash" ? ( Translates = toilet in every house ) .

Digital currency is like putting all the eggs in one basket... and potentially fraught with massive national security risks. And... all this might entail massive investments ( = FDI ) on a continual basis. On Hardware and software imports of expensive wares. That might be needed to be updated, replaced and / or upgraded almost every year or so. NOT REALLY REQUIRED and desirable.

The best course might have been to divide the risks aspects in different clusters... thereby randomly distributing the risk quotient = eggs in almost 9 - 12 baskets - at least. This might reduce the chances of wrong doing and be MORE apt risk mitigation measure. At the same time ensuring maximum tax accruals and minimum tax evasion. Btw... that itself requires innovative ideas by the GoI rather than broad-based digitization. An extremely risky proposition. Frankly. Ask any cyber security expert. Btw- we are NOT developed nations... and there is NIL need to compare vis-a-vis developed western countries.

< Our real worth is seen near the railway tracks... every day... in the morning hours... in the evening hours... well ... I guess 24 hours a day !! > Do NOT forget this - Captain and mates + BJP+ RSS .

Seems like the BJP + RSS DO NOT have that as the focal point of their drive on demonetisation. Mere big talks DO NOT yield tangible results.


7) There might be chances that Special Interest Groups ( SIGs ) and specific set of people groups who have a history of networking together and watching each other's back ( and their asses/ arses as well ) might have per-emptively tipped each other off in 100 % secrecy, much before the demon-eti-sati-on plan was conceived/ planned/ executed.

Whilst... the others... i.e. the fragmented lot of people who are usually in the dark are actually the ones... caught napping and are the NETT losers. < Reference - the College bandh. >


ADDENDA

Few notable points...

POINT ONE -

There is monumental difference between - clap vs crap. On this note everyone may / must agree.

Now the BJP + RSS cumulative decision to scrap altogether INR 500 and INR 1000 Rupee notes in circulation on 8th November, 2016 sounded like a "monumentally great" and proactive decision by the central Govt. ... on the "face" value. A macho-istic bold step.

We might need to revisit the "real" value of this action and ramifications thereof.

My understanding tells that had the BJP + RSS unleashed massive liquidity in the market within a period of ( MAX )

FIVE to... SEVEN to... ELEVEN DAYS... FLAT.

Then... the transition might have been smooth. and the BJP + RSS demonetisation drive would have elicited...

CLAPS... CLAPS... and more... CLAPS.

Unfortunately,

the way things are going seems like CRAPPY. And, is tantamount to...

CRAP... CRAP... and potentially more CRAP on the way. ( I cannot help but think that this has Captain's signature all over this demon-i-sati-on thingy. )

QUESTION -
Why did the 2.5 years young BJP + RSS Govt. did NOT print adequate currency notes during the former RBI Governor's tenure ? Say... they could have started in total secrecy some 8-9 months back ?

What compulsions prevented them from making such a choice ? Why ?

Factually... they seem to have started printing fresh currency notes after Mr Urjit Patel ( family member of the Ambanis ) took over as the RBI governor.

WHY ?

Why so hurry ?

Now the BJP + RSS says that they need 50 days. But going by the current currency notes printing rate... this takes at least 7-9 months. By the MOST conservative estimates.

This is NOT AT ALL acceptable.

This is NO lapse. Is this NOT tantamount to... criminal breach of trust... with the Indian masses ? Of which hardly 11-12 % ( = almost 14 crores out of 130 crores as-of-today) have voted in BJP to power. mE too !!

POINT TO PONDER -

BJP leader Subramaniam Swamy ( a Tamil Brahmin aka TamBram ) led a crusade against the former RBI governor Mr Raghuram Rajan. After ousting Mr Rajan ... we get Mr Urjit Patel ( a family member of the Ambanis ).

And... presto... Demonetization starts. EL PRONTO...

The new INR 500 and INR 2000 have Mr Urjit Patel's signature.

Is it NOT curious that around the same time the CM of TN - JJ falls sick and is taken to ICU since the past one-two plus month.

So... JJ and her party AIDMK are NOT coming up clearly as regards the demon-etisation drive... as public would have expected.

Quite possibly... she would have been compelled to join hands with WB CM Ms Mamata Baerjee and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal.

This most desirable polarization has NOT happened. JJ carries much weight and her pitching in might have entirely polarized in the opposition camp that is much divided and confused. And... the entire opposition is divided.

UP and Bihar leaderships seems like 100 % managed.

This is NOT acceptable.

And, bodes of unseen dangers for the country.


POINT TWO -
The former Congress union minister Mr P. Chidambaram alleges that... the Chief Economic Adviser of the GoI was totally kept in the dark as regards this whole effort. Thereby rendering this whole effort as an illegal activity.

Even the RBI rules were NOT adhered to whilst the BJP+RSS regime ordered printing of fresh currency notes.

Another - ILLEGAL and despotic act.


POINT THREE -

IN EFFECT -
The BJP + RSS regime is trying to achieve results it might have achieved with minimum damage to the country men and the Indian economy. Whilst the BJP + RSS surgical strike ( aka demon-eti-sati-on ) might potentially try to pulverize the opposition parties and their potential long-term political financiers...

The moot point is... massive numbers of the people across the country are suffering. The entire economy has taken a mega hit.

This is akin to a mini emergency. Perhaps a dry run... sort of. Is there Captian's hidden hand in this ?

Looks like. Maybe. Perhaps.


POINT FOUR -

QUESTION -
What if... the Captain and mates decide to go for another surgical strike deep inside the PoK territory ? And... the ususal border/ cross-border low-scale conflict / skirmishes leads to some small-scale localized confrontation ( much aka Kargil con-flict )... so that this is hailed as a MAJOR victory = gain by the BJP + RSS think-tanks ?

As an offering ( = much tom-tomming and hyping up ) for the oncoming... UP, Punjab elections and the 2019 LS polls ?

This MUST not be discounted. esp. this month and the next. This thought repeats again ad again. So... putting forth here.


I am 100 % against the huge latency in provision of liquidity by the BJP + RSS regime.

A failure on their part. They MUST explain this to the nation.

BJP + RSS MUST explain why they chose for Mr Raghuram Rajan's ( an IIT-Delhi almnus ) exit to start off demonetisation in a much hurried manner ? Within a set of weeks' time ? Why NEED so much hurry ?

This is going against the country. Against the country's economy. Against the people of the country.

This is dangerous... Setting of dangerous precedent.


POINT FIVE -

I 100 % support and side with former PM Dr MM Singh, Delhi CM Mr Arvind Kejriwal and the WB CM Ms Mamata Banerjee and the likes of them. And... in their protest against the impromptu demon-etisation imposed on the country-men and the resultant constrictions on the economy and our cumulative lives. This is 100 % wrong methodology, owing MAINLY to the latency involved. And the ensuing liquidity crunch.

Why the BJP + RSS could NOT wait to print enough cash over some 6 months period ?

This is dangerous. WAY TOO DANGEROUS !!

Let me repeat... m-commerce alone MUST NOT be the sole way forward.

FURTHER...

The tourist season in Q4, 2016 and Q1, Q2, 2017 is going to take mega hit. The transportation sector is near grounded. The low, medium, large and small-scale industries are without money to pay the daily wages to the daily wage earners.

Manufacturing is greatly hit. So is agriculture. The paddy seeds that sold for INR 1300 /quintal in the sowing season are going for INR 900/ quintal. Still there were no buyers. Someone from WB told me the situation some ten days back. Same with the potato farming everywhere.

First and fore-most - BJP + RSS must explain the hurry ? Why did they NOT start printing notes in a secret military facility some ONE YEAR back ? Why ?

Who might have stopped them ?

With Mr Urjit Patel being a Ambani family member -how does BJP+ RSS explain the Reliance Zio plans and investments ? Is the common public posers I am NOT alone being faced with.

BJP + RSS MUST explain to the nation.

Glib talk and unbridled gung-ho propaganda using the MSM ( TV + newspapers ) does NOT pay up much, in the long term.

There might be price to pay for this. This is the general public perception.


< EndOfPost = EoP, Part 1 of ... >