Demonetisation aka Note-Bandi - Part 1

Demonetisation aka Note-Bandi - Part 1


A notably apt recollection -

Almost 2-3 decades back in some professional educational institute wherein fresh students from all across the country flocked to the learn the ropes of their trade...

They all had run into a common problem... real messy food served to them in the mess. And, this was getting on everyone's nerves... and health. So, a few dynamic smarties ganged up with some actionable plan... and... decided to do some rabble rousing... i.e. incited all the fellow mates ( just like the Captain and ALL his visibly invisible or 'vice versa' mates ). The net result was that these guys organized a massive bandh of the lecture halls and the hostel messes... for a single day. Boycotting classes and gheraoing the administrative block and the concerned college authorities. This whole drama commenced from morning to late into the night.

With the result that almost 400-500 students went without food for the entire day. By the time these students finished with the protest activity ( between 2100 to 2400 hours ) there was NO food to be had anywhere around. So, almost everyone went to bed... dejected, hungry and tired.

Dejected...
Since... the authorities yielded nothing substantive. It might have been... more of pep talk and promises galore.

( It is another matter that the gherao = bandh yielded almost negligible tangible gains. If I recall correctly. )

But... did I say... all the rabble-roused and proactive souls went empty stomach to bed ?

Well NO !!

Now...
The coterie of smarties who were the master-mind behind the whole effort... towards the end of the day-long bandh or... after the tired students ( taking turns... sitting day long under the glaring sun ) dispersed late in the night; flocked together and huddled silently ( each one of these guys barging in unobserved one by one ) and had silent feast with the goodies they had purchased and stocked up well in advance. Anticipating that what a day-long impromptu-ly announced bandh ( plan hatched, action led, rabble-rousing enforced by them ) might entail, at the end of the day.

So... whilst almost the whole flock led by the smarties ( sans the smarties ) went to bed almost hungry... the smarties had some 'real' feast.

Now... IMPORTANT here -
It hardly matters whether the 'smarties' were... way to well... all gorged up... at the outset of the 'effort'... ELSE... at the end of the 'effort'... had feast.

NOW...
This true incident serves as an eye opener and has great potential equivalence/ congruence as regards the BJP + RSS action on demon-eti-sati-on.


FRANKLY...
The former PM Dr M.M. Singh is 100 % correct in voicing the opinion of the suffering masses. And... his words actually describe the situation in true light. 100 % .

Is this breach of trust by the BJP + RSS on the nation ?

The answer seems like affirmative.


Few thought on... DEMONETISATION... ACTUALLY -

1) sounds like a 'surgical strike' on ALL the non-BJP and non-RSS entities. So that it takes them eons to recover. Considering that UP and Punjab elections are near hand. And it requires some real cash to fight any electoral polls. Without money... the opposition might be trounced.

2) This has, in effect, made hell the lives of almost 99 % + of the population. Some way or the other. People are silently suffering... in angst... with only faith in God and hope in the future.

3) Completely derailed the economy out of which it might take couple of years to recover.

4) Former PM Dr MM Singh voiced the concern that the economic growth might shrink by 2 % odd points. My gut instinct suggests that it might be way much worse off than that. Perhaps... in the negative territory already.

5) BJP and RSS and the smarties would NOT and NEVER harm their strategic interests. Whilst knowing that what potentially lies ahead. ( I understand that the Captain and his mates might have forced the PM to enforce note-bandh-i in such an unprepared manner. Why ? Why so much of hurry ? What's the take away for the Captain and mates ? )

6) The sole aim of this entire drive seems to be... going digital. Digital currency, e-wallet, plastic debit and credit cards, payment by/ thru' mobile phones ( m-commerce ).

These guys TOTALLY forget the economic losses accruing out of the cyber-crime in the e-commerce domain. That might run into several tens of billions of USD ... year after years. And... maybe spiral out of control over the oncoming decades. Esp. in a massive country like India. Where people are still struggling for basic amenities in life.

RECAP -
Is that not the reason that BJP chose the mission - "ghar-ghar sandash" ? ( Translates = toilet in every house ) .

Digital currency is like putting all the eggs in one basket... and potentially fraught with massive national security risks. And... all this might entail massive investments ( = FDI ) on a continual basis. On Hardware and software imports of expensive wares. That might be needed to be updated, replaced and / or upgraded almost every year or so. NOT REALLY REQUIRED and desirable.

The best course might have been to divide the risks aspects in different clusters... thereby randomly distributing the risk quotient = eggs in almost 9 - 12 baskets - at least. This might reduce the chances of wrong doing and be MORE apt risk mitigation measure. At the same time ensuring maximum tax accruals and minimum tax evasion. Btw... that itself requires innovative ideas by the GoI rather than broad-based digitization. An extremely risky proposition. Frankly. Ask any cyber security expert. Btw- we are NOT developed nations... and there is NIL need to compare vis-a-vis developed western countries.

< Our real worth is seen near the railway tracks... every day... in the morning hours... in the evening hours... well ... I guess 24 hours a day !! > Do NOT forget this - Captain and mates + BJP+ RSS .

Seems like the BJP + RSS DO NOT have that as the focal point of their drive on demonetisation. Mere big talks DO NOT yield tangible results.


7) There might be chances that Special Interest Groups ( SIGs ) and specific set of people groups who have a history of networking together and watching each other's back ( and their asses/ arses as well ) might have per-emptively tipped each other off in 100 % secrecy, much before the demon-eti-sati-on plan was conceived/ planned/ executed.

Whilst... the others... i.e. the fragmented lot of people who are usually in the dark are actually the ones... caught napping and are the NETT losers. < Reference - the College bandh. >


ADDENDA

Few notable points...

POINT ONE -

There is monumental difference between - clap vs crap. On this note everyone may / must agree.

Now the BJP + RSS cumulative decision to scrap altogether INR 500 and INR 1000 Rupee notes in circulation on 8th November, 2016 sounded like a "monumentally great" and proactive decision by the central Govt. ... on the "face" value. A macho-istic bold step.

We might need to revisit the "real" value of this action and ramifications thereof.

My understanding tells that had the BJP + RSS unleashed massive liquidity in the market within a period of ( MAX )

FIVE to... SEVEN to... ELEVEN DAYS... FLAT.

Then... the transition might have been smooth. and the BJP + RSS demonetisation drive would have elicited...

CLAPS... CLAPS... and more... CLAPS.

Unfortunately,

the way things are going seems like CRAPPY. And, is tantamount to...

CRAP... CRAP... and potentially more CRAP on the way. ( I cannot help but think that this has Captain's signature all over this demon-i-sati-on thingy. )

QUESTION -
Why did the 2.5 years young BJP + RSS Govt. did NOT print adequate currency notes during the former RBI Governor's tenure ? Say... they could have started in total secrecy some 8-9 months back ?

What compulsions prevented them from making such a choice ? Why ?

Factually... they seem to have started printing fresh currency notes after Mr Urjit Patel ( family member of the Ambanis ) took over as the RBI governor.

WHY ?

Why so hurry ?

Now the BJP + RSS says that they need 50 days. But going by the current currency notes printing rate... this takes at least 7-9 months. By the MOST conservative estimates.

This is NOT AT ALL acceptable.

This is NO lapse. Is this NOT tantamount to... criminal breach of trust... with the Indian masses ? Of which hardly 11-12 % ( = almost 14 crores out of 130 crores as-of-today) have voted in BJP to power. mE too !!

POINT TO PONDER -

BJP leader Subramaniam Swamy ( a Tamil Brahmin aka TamBram ) led a crusade against the former RBI governor Mr Raghuram Rajan. After ousting Mr Rajan ... we get Mr Urjit Patel ( a family member of the Ambanis ).

And... presto... Demonetization starts. EL PRONTO...

The new INR 500 and INR 2000 have Mr Urjit Patel's signature.

Is it NOT curious that around the same time the CM of TN - JJ falls sick and is taken to ICU since the past one-two plus month.

So... JJ and her party AIDMK are NOT coming up clearly as regards the demon-etisation drive... as public would have expected.

Quite possibly... she would have been compelled to join hands with WB CM Ms Mamata Baerjee and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal.

This most desirable polarization has NOT happened. JJ carries much weight and her pitching in might have entirely polarized in the opposition camp that is much divided and confused. And... the entire opposition is divided.

UP and Bihar leaderships seems like 100 % managed.

This is NOT acceptable.

And, bodes of unseen dangers for the country.


POINT TWO -
The former Congress union minister Mr P. Chidambaram alleges that... the Chief Economic Adviser of the GoI was totally kept in the dark as regards this whole effort. Thereby rendering this whole effort as an illegal activity.

Even the RBI rules were NOT adhered to whilst the BJP+RSS regime ordered printing of fresh currency notes.

Another - ILLEGAL and despotic act.


POINT THREE -

IN EFFECT -
The BJP + RSS regime is trying to achieve results it might have achieved with minimum damage to the country men and the Indian economy. Whilst the BJP + RSS surgical strike ( aka demon-eti-sati-on ) might potentially try to pulverize the opposition parties and their potential long-term political financiers...

The moot point is... massive numbers of the people across the country are suffering. The entire economy has taken a mega hit.

This is akin to a mini emergency. Perhaps a dry run... sort of. Is there Captian's hidden hand in this ?

Looks like. Maybe. Perhaps.


POINT FOUR -

QUESTION -
What if... the Captain and mates decide to go for another surgical strike deep inside the PoK territory ? And... the ususal border/ cross-border low-scale conflict / skirmishes leads to some small-scale localized confrontation ( much aka Kargil con-flict )... so that this is hailed as a MAJOR victory = gain by the BJP + RSS think-tanks ?

As an offering ( = much tom-tomming and hyping up ) for the oncoming... UP, Punjab elections and the 2019 LS polls ?

This MUST not be discounted. esp. this month and the next. This thought repeats again ad again. So... putting forth here.


I am 100 % against the huge latency in provision of liquidity by the BJP + RSS regime.

A failure on their part. They MUST explain this to the nation.

BJP + RSS MUST explain why they chose for Mr Raghuram Rajan's ( an IIT-Delhi almnus ) exit to start off demonetisation in a much hurried manner ? Within a set of weeks' time ? Why NEED so much hurry ?

This is going against the country. Against the country's economy. Against the people of the country.

This is dangerous... Setting of dangerous precedent.


POINT FIVE -

I 100 % support and side with former PM Dr MM Singh, Delhi CM Mr Arvind Kejriwal and the WB CM Ms Mamata Banerjee and the likes of them. And... in their protest against the impromptu demon-etisation imposed on the country-men and the resultant constrictions on the economy and our cumulative lives. This is 100 % wrong methodology, owing MAINLY to the latency involved. And the ensuing liquidity crunch.

Why the BJP + RSS could NOT wait to print enough cash over some 6 months period ?

This is dangerous. WAY TOO DANGEROUS !!

Let me repeat... m-commerce alone MUST NOT be the sole way forward.

FURTHER...

The tourist season in Q4, 2016 and Q1, Q2, 2017 is going to take mega hit. The transportation sector is near grounded. The low, medium, large and small-scale industries are without money to pay the daily wages to the daily wage earners.

Manufacturing is greatly hit. So is agriculture. The paddy seeds that sold for INR 1300 /quintal in the sowing season are going for INR 900/ quintal. Still there were no buyers. Someone from WB told me the situation some ten days back. Same with the potato farming everywhere.

First and fore-most - BJP + RSS must explain the hurry ? Why did they NOT start printing notes in a secret military facility some ONE YEAR back ? Why ?

Who might have stopped them ?

With Mr Urjit Patel being a Ambani family member -how does BJP+ RSS explain the Reliance Zio plans and investments ? Is the common public posers I am NOT alone being faced with.

BJP + RSS MUST explain to the nation.

Glib talk and unbridled gung-ho propaganda using the MSM ( TV + newspapers ) does NOT pay up much, in the long term.

There might be price to pay for this. This is the general public perception.


< EndOfPost = EoP, Part 1 of ... >