Strategic Partners,Some thoughts
Every country needs to have strategic partners.
This strategic partnership may be any of - long, medium and/ or short term.
...
...
In this context, a few thoughts follow -
111) Two years back... Russia has been able to seal a 30 years, USD $ 400 Billions deal with China ( the PRC ) for the supply of petroleum products and gases to PRC at almost down-bottoms flat rates, spanning decades.
With currency swap or rouble-yuan trading involved, thereby reducing the effective volumes of the petro-currency in the international market.
Most people might see this as a WIN-WIN deal for them both nations.
Way to go.
Much to the glee of the Chinese and the Russian leadership, who were able to cut a significant deal.
This deal had generated much bonhomie between the PRC and Russia.
...
...
I humbly suggest that, we in India, must negotiate a similar kind of "flat-rates" deal with any/ more of the following countries -
a) the Russian federation, &/ or
b) the central Asian energy-surplus republics, &/ or
c) some individual OPEC countries, etc.
mapped on some one-to-one basis deal.
...
...
...
Now...
With Russia - as parts of security/ energy security/ strategic partnership we can choose to have a flat-priced/ structured deal... that is negotiable every year ... and varies with the the fluctuating markets.
The pricing could be something that is at the lower end of either of - existing international price or a fixed flattish-kind of base price for any/ all the petro products or gases.
This sort of deal might interest the Russians a lot.
{{
Recalling... a ponderable...
Even the Dabhol power project in Maharashtra/ Konkan area has been designed to use the hydrocarbon gases as fuel. Now... if we can get assured delivery of these hydrocarbon gases ( with apt storage / baseline reserves for 10-15-20 days or even 1-2-3 months ) then... we may be in a position to have 10-20-30 such hydrocarbon gases fired power plants ( say - mini, medium-scale ones catering to a nearby town or city ) around the country. Wherein the emissions are to be minimal.
This precludes the need/ necessity of going in for the Uranium-powered nuclear plants at a large scale. ( We may choose to ramp down the actual numbers of negotiated ones. Say - Andhra Pradesh has decided to get 6 uranium powered nuclear power plants. I suggest that better might be - at most one. ) That the western nations are throwing at us. Or... is it... shoving down... our throats.
After all we MUST NOT forget that the nuclear disaster at Fukushima, Japan has consumed almost much more than USD 200 Billions of Japanese money till this moment.
And...
by the time this radiation fallout winds up... this cost to the Japanese people might be almost more than USD 500 - 800 billions !! Perhaps USD 1 Trillions - if we choose to mark out a limit ??
Meanwhile we MUST be in a situation wherein we are able to develop or co-develop the indigenous thorium-based nuclear power plants.
Does this requires any/ some strategic thinking and planning by our think tanks ??
}}
Say... something about... inking a USD $ 800 to 1,000 Billions deal spread over 40 years, with the Russians. For the supply of petroleum products and gas - all form, format, scale.
Btw - over 40 years... USD $ 800 to 1,000 Billions deal works out something like -
USD $ 600 / 40 = Average imports of petro products ( specifically gas ) of nearly USD $ 15 billions, annually.
USD $ 800 / 40 = Average imports of petro products ( specifically gas ) of nearly USD $ 20 billions, annually.
USD $ 1,000 / 40 = Average imports of petro products ( specifically gas ) of nearly USD $ 25 billions, annually.
This may NOT be a significant commitment from us. Looking at our demographic profile and the overall projected energy consumption figures.
Going forwards... this is NOT much for an energy deficient country, like us. And... sounds quite reasonable.
This adds to our strategic weight with the Russians.
Further... this ensures that our strategic tie up with the Russians endures... and well.
IMPORTANT -
The GoI MUST think out and get into this line of thinking ASAP.
A fallout of this energy security arrangement... advantageously... might be...
aaa) our dependence on the OPEC ( middles eastern blocks, specifically ) REDUCES
Why I suggest the above figure of upto USD $ 1000 billions... is...
Going forward... once I put forth the ideation ( that... basically... has to do with a previous "on the table and... plates" post )... there is some certain possibility that... a lots of some of these desert OPEC countries might be compelled to move back/ revert to their Bedouin days i.e. life astride a camel-top backpack... i.e. atop a camel hump... below some date tree in the arid desert landscape.
For good.... Take note.
bbb) re-balances the RIC part of the BRICS framework. Strengthening the RIC alliance must be the prime objective of the triads.
This has... importantly... the desired leveraging of the Indo-Russian control over the PRC.
Even... managing and containing once and for all... some such countries like Pakistan will become all the more easy. In all the probability.
The Russians might help strengthen our desired objective/ outlook in the Afghan arena, as well.
This certainly has a negative impact on the CPEC, as well.
One view -
The PRC was/ is emboldened to step into CPEC, owing to the Russians remaining silent over the Chinese go ahead with their CPEC plans. ( Basically as a tie up to strengthen the Punjabi Sunni hold of / over Pakistan. )
Is the Russians remaining silent to be read as a tacit Russian support ? I believe they are looking at their own self interests and do not want to counter the PRC, as of today, when they are facing problems from the USA.
...
I believe that this has much to do with / reference the Russian-PRC USD 400 billions deals to lend support to the Russian people/ economy which had been facing the brunt of economic warfare and currency manipulations enforced by the western nations.
ccc) Any Indo-Russian mega deal spanning couple of decades ( 30-40-50 years )...
Forms an inseparable ever-sensitive bond between the Russian and the Indian economy and the people.
Links both the countries' economy and economic growth parameters.
ddd) Marks us both the countries against currency manipulations when we decide to have the mutual trade in Rouble-Rupee ONLY.
Therefore economic warfare risks or any future sanctions risk ( say - later... in case we decide to test a thorium bomb, etc. ) are perceptibly minimised... or, rather might be blunted and therefore... be rendered null-and-void.
eee) Has certainly an accretionary positive influence on our forex reserves.
Remember 1990/ 1991 ...
when the Forex coffers were near empty... we were forced to -
1) part with our gold reserves,
2) the Indian rupee had to be massively devalued,
3) Both the above - as part of the 'liberalisation process' of our economy.
Adequately repleting our forex reserves, must be our core agenda to anyhows preclude the repeat of 1990/ 1991.
...
222) We must be in a position to successfully blunt the @@ economic warfare and sanctions imposed by external vested interests; if ever it were to ever take place, again.
In this context - a covert cartel that is formed to mitigate such risks might mull deepening and strengthening ties with countries like Russia, PRC, Iran, etc. on some key fronts. ( what about - African, Latin American countries, Germany, etc. ? )
@@ Specifically in the context of/ on energy security. And - as a hedge against currency manipulations and currency hegemony.
333) Strategic tieup with the Americans / Western nations - on high tech, bleeding edge technologies and the R&D thereof.
444) Strategic tie-up and increasing our volume of inter-country trade with ASEAN and the majority of Asian countries. As also those from Africa and Latin American countries.
To mitigate the risk of economic shock... were our economy dependent majorly on one specific country's or region's economy.
Basically... diversification and diffraction of - risks / strengths/ weaknesses, etc.
555) Strategic tieup with the PRC ( Well... does this sound strange ? )
Recalling someone telling me recently that PRC does NOT allow ANY allopathic drugs imports from western countries, at all. Western drugs are banned in the PRC, someone tells. The Chinese make and use their own drugs. Sometimes - using natural treatment with herbs, condiments, spices, etc.
{{
Thereby they save on tens of billions of USD of imports of mostly western pharma drugs, per year.
Say - what about USD - 20 to USD 30 per year .
@ Forex saving of USD 25 billions per year makes the NET saving over a 20 years period itself as = USD 20 x 25 billions = USD 500 billions !!
Now... do people understand why the Chinese guys have forex around USD 3000 - 4000 billions !!
}}
Basically their imports of western drugs is NIL. Since western drugs/ pharma are 100 % banned in the PRC.
Not sure about the veracity of this claim.
In case that is true - then we must look at alternatives to the allopathic medicines we import in tonnes.
And belittle the influence and spread of evil pharma in our country.
After all each year we import western drugs and pharma/ lab equipments worth tens of thousands of crores.
This is a monumental expense over a decade's time.
GoI must take note.
Note - Prevention is better than cure.
666) Strategic tie-up between the Asian countries... lest the super weight countries (??) ( mostly non-Asian ones ) do not effect to take us out one after the other.
In a sequentially random manner. Their ways and methodologies... span decades &/ or centuries.
Observed that - the form, format and scale of this 'running down' of specific countries/ economies/ people is chosen as per specific backgrounds, running context, etc.
And... the story is mostly different... everytimes.
Actually... all the time.
777) Seems apparent that the GoI is putting all the eggs in one basket by trying to appease the Americans.
In this context... NDA-2 wants to massively ramp up the Indo-American trades to USD 500 billions level, per annum, within a span of FIVE years.
From the current levels of almost USD 100 billions, at most.
I find this all of a sudden spurt in trade a way bit strange and bewildering.
Not sure we are ready for the same ratcheting up. And, how this actually helps us.
QUESTION -
Are we doing this at the expense of our relation with other countries ?
Say - Russia ?
...
...
Frankly - it is best to re-leverage our ties with the Russians and try to get a good chunk of our energy needs sourced from them. At flat rates. This is the time for some such long term negotiations. The PRC secured an advantage over us, on this.
Btw... Russia sits on the other side of the PRC.
India and Russia squeeze the PRC in between them. So... does it NOT make natural sense to always have the Russians as our best allies and partners ? is a question that must NOT be allowed to let go by our strategic experts !!
< EoP >
Every country needs to have strategic partners.
This strategic partnership may be any of - long, medium and/ or short term.
...
...
In this context, a few thoughts follow -
111) Two years back... Russia has been able to seal a 30 years, USD $ 400 Billions deal with China ( the PRC ) for the supply of petroleum products and gases to PRC at almost down-bottoms flat rates, spanning decades.
With currency swap or rouble-yuan trading involved, thereby reducing the effective volumes of the petro-currency in the international market.
Most people might see this as a WIN-WIN deal for them both nations.
Way to go.
Much to the glee of the Chinese and the Russian leadership, who were able to cut a significant deal.
This deal had generated much bonhomie between the PRC and Russia.
...
...
I humbly suggest that, we in India, must negotiate a similar kind of "flat-rates" deal with any/ more of the following countries -
a) the Russian federation, &/ or
b) the central Asian energy-surplus republics, &/ or
c) some individual OPEC countries, etc.
mapped on some one-to-one basis deal.
...
...
...
Now...
With Russia - as parts of security/ energy security/ strategic partnership we can choose to have a flat-priced/ structured deal... that is negotiable every year ... and varies with the the fluctuating markets.
The pricing could be something that is at the lower end of either of - existing international price or a fixed flattish-kind of base price for any/ all the petro products or gases.
This sort of deal might interest the Russians a lot.
{{
Recalling... a ponderable...
Even the Dabhol power project in Maharashtra/ Konkan area has been designed to use the hydrocarbon gases as fuel. Now... if we can get assured delivery of these hydrocarbon gases ( with apt storage / baseline reserves for 10-15-20 days or even 1-2-3 months ) then... we may be in a position to have 10-20-30 such hydrocarbon gases fired power plants ( say - mini, medium-scale ones catering to a nearby town or city ) around the country. Wherein the emissions are to be minimal.
This precludes the need/ necessity of going in for the Uranium-powered nuclear plants at a large scale. ( We may choose to ramp down the actual numbers of negotiated ones. Say - Andhra Pradesh has decided to get 6 uranium powered nuclear power plants. I suggest that better might be - at most one. ) That the western nations are throwing at us. Or... is it... shoving down... our throats.
After all we MUST NOT forget that the nuclear disaster at Fukushima, Japan has consumed almost much more than USD 200 Billions of Japanese money till this moment.
And...
by the time this radiation fallout winds up... this cost to the Japanese people might be almost more than USD 500 - 800 billions !! Perhaps USD 1 Trillions - if we choose to mark out a limit ??
Meanwhile we MUST be in a situation wherein we are able to develop or co-develop the indigenous thorium-based nuclear power plants.
Does this requires any/ some strategic thinking and planning by our think tanks ??
}}
Say... something about... inking a USD $ 800 to 1,000 Billions deal spread over 40 years, with the Russians. For the supply of petroleum products and gas - all form, format, scale.
Btw - over 40 years... USD $ 800 to 1,000 Billions deal works out something like -
USD $ 600 / 40 = Average imports of petro products ( specifically gas ) of nearly USD $ 15 billions, annually.
USD $ 800 / 40 = Average imports of petro products ( specifically gas ) of nearly USD $ 20 billions, annually.
USD $ 1,000 / 40 = Average imports of petro products ( specifically gas ) of nearly USD $ 25 billions, annually.
This may NOT be a significant commitment from us. Looking at our demographic profile and the overall projected energy consumption figures.
Going forwards... this is NOT much for an energy deficient country, like us. And... sounds quite reasonable.
This adds to our strategic weight with the Russians.
Further... this ensures that our strategic tie up with the Russians endures... and well.
IMPORTANT -
The GoI MUST think out and get into this line of thinking ASAP.
A fallout of this energy security arrangement... advantageously... might be...
aaa) our dependence on the OPEC ( middles eastern blocks, specifically ) REDUCES
Why I suggest the above figure of upto USD $ 1000 billions... is...
Going forward... once I put forth the ideation ( that... basically... has to do with a previous "on the table and... plates" post )... there is some certain possibility that... a lots of some of these desert OPEC countries might be compelled to move back/ revert to their Bedouin days i.e. life astride a camel-top backpack... i.e. atop a camel hump... below some date tree in the arid desert landscape.
For good.... Take note.
bbb) re-balances the RIC part of the BRICS framework. Strengthening the RIC alliance must be the prime objective of the triads.
This has... importantly... the desired leveraging of the Indo-Russian control over the PRC.
Even... managing and containing once and for all... some such countries like Pakistan will become all the more easy. In all the probability.
The Russians might help strengthen our desired objective/ outlook in the Afghan arena, as well.
This certainly has a negative impact on the CPEC, as well.
One view -
The PRC was/ is emboldened to step into CPEC, owing to the Russians remaining silent over the Chinese go ahead with their CPEC plans. ( Basically as a tie up to strengthen the Punjabi Sunni hold of / over Pakistan. )
Is the Russians remaining silent to be read as a tacit Russian support ? I believe they are looking at their own self interests and do not want to counter the PRC, as of today, when they are facing problems from the USA.
...
I believe that this has much to do with / reference the Russian-PRC USD 400 billions deals to lend support to the Russian people/ economy which had been facing the brunt of economic warfare and currency manipulations enforced by the western nations.
ccc) Any Indo-Russian mega deal spanning couple of decades ( 30-40-50 years )...
Forms an inseparable ever-sensitive bond between the Russian and the Indian economy and the people.
Links both the countries' economy and economic growth parameters.
ddd) Marks us both the countries against currency manipulations when we decide to have the mutual trade in Rouble-Rupee ONLY.
Therefore economic warfare risks or any future sanctions risk ( say - later... in case we decide to test a thorium bomb, etc. ) are perceptibly minimised... or, rather might be blunted and therefore... be rendered null-and-void.
eee) Has certainly an accretionary positive influence on our forex reserves.
Remember 1990/ 1991 ...
when the Forex coffers were near empty... we were forced to -
1) part with our gold reserves,
2) the Indian rupee had to be massively devalued,
3) Both the above - as part of the 'liberalisation process' of our economy.
Adequately repleting our forex reserves, must be our core agenda to anyhows preclude the repeat of 1990/ 1991.
...
222) We must be in a position to successfully blunt the @@ economic warfare and sanctions imposed by external vested interests; if ever it were to ever take place, again.
In this context - a covert cartel that is formed to mitigate such risks might mull deepening and strengthening ties with countries like Russia, PRC, Iran, etc. on some key fronts. ( what about - African, Latin American countries, Germany, etc. ? )
@@ Specifically in the context of/ on energy security. And - as a hedge against currency manipulations and currency hegemony.
333) Strategic tieup with the Americans / Western nations - on high tech, bleeding edge technologies and the R&D thereof.
444) Strategic tie-up and increasing our volume of inter-country trade with ASEAN and the majority of Asian countries. As also those from Africa and Latin American countries.
To mitigate the risk of economic shock... were our economy dependent majorly on one specific country's or region's economy.
Basically... diversification and diffraction of - risks / strengths/ weaknesses, etc.
555) Strategic tieup with the PRC ( Well... does this sound strange ? )
Recalling someone telling me recently that PRC does NOT allow ANY allopathic drugs imports from western countries, at all. Western drugs are banned in the PRC, someone tells. The Chinese make and use their own drugs. Sometimes - using natural treatment with herbs, condiments, spices, etc.
{{
Thereby they save on tens of billions of USD of imports of mostly western pharma drugs, per year.
Say - what about USD - 20 to USD 30 per year .
@ Forex saving of USD 25 billions per year makes the NET saving over a 20 years period itself as = USD 20 x 25 billions = USD 500 billions !!
Now... do people understand why the Chinese guys have forex around USD 3000 - 4000 billions !!
}}
Basically their imports of western drugs is NIL. Since western drugs/ pharma are 100 % banned in the PRC.
Not sure about the veracity of this claim.
In case that is true - then we must look at alternatives to the allopathic medicines we import in tonnes.
And belittle the influence and spread of evil pharma in our country.
After all each year we import western drugs and pharma/ lab equipments worth tens of thousands of crores.
This is a monumental expense over a decade's time.
GoI must take note.
Note - Prevention is better than cure.
666) Strategic tie-up between the Asian countries... lest the super weight countries (??) ( mostly non-Asian ones ) do not effect to take us out one after the other.
In a sequentially random manner. Their ways and methodologies... span decades &/ or centuries.
Observed that - the form, format and scale of this 'running down' of specific countries/ economies/ people is chosen as per specific backgrounds, running context, etc.
And... the story is mostly different... everytimes.
Actually... all the time.
777) Seems apparent that the GoI is putting all the eggs in one basket by trying to appease the Americans.
In this context... NDA-2 wants to massively ramp up the Indo-American trades to USD 500 billions level, per annum, within a span of FIVE years.
From the current levels of almost USD 100 billions, at most.
I find this all of a sudden spurt in trade a way bit strange and bewildering.
Not sure we are ready for the same ratcheting up. And, how this actually helps us.
QUESTION -
Are we doing this at the expense of our relation with other countries ?
Say - Russia ?
...
...
Frankly - it is best to re-leverage our ties with the Russians and try to get a good chunk of our energy needs sourced from them. At flat rates. This is the time for some such long term negotiations. The PRC secured an advantage over us, on this.
Btw... Russia sits on the other side of the PRC.
India and Russia squeeze the PRC in between them. So... does it NOT make natural sense to always have the Russians as our best allies and partners ? is a question that must NOT be allowed to let go by our strategic experts !!
< EoP >
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