Monday, August 29, 2016

Maya's Prescience or is it... Premonition

Maya's Prescience or is it... Premonition


PART ONE :

Today... read in the newspapers that... the BSP Supremo has claimed that the BJP leadership might engage the country in a war with Pakistan, in the near future -

aaa) To divert the attention from the core issues facing the country... and BJP's failure to deliver on the same,

bbb) Not to forget... the BJP's pre-poll promise of Rs 15 lakhs in every Indian's bank account... once the BJP came to power during... the LS polls @ May, 2014

( I have earlier written about and... tried the quantifications of the extent of the black money overseas, based on this election-time 'PROMISE" by BJP... and... aggregately used... the 'law of compounding' !! And... this money maybe around USD 300 TRILLIONS !! And... mostly in western as also this same (covertly) invested Indian money... overtly seen as western FDI... perhaps or probably runs the PRC economy and muscles up the PRC manufacturing base as also... their military buildup.

ccc) Then this question surely arises... whether...

On the back of a media-generated patriotic FERVOUR generated across the country... on the back of a war with any neighbouring country... the BJP and RSS may try to use this as a base platform... to claim victory in LS polls in early 2019 !! In which case - are there chances that fickle masses let go the # bbb) as above ??

100 % true !! ##

## As... we might have potentially seen in the case of... Kargil war with Pakistan. See the "PART TWO" of this post belows for some details on this.

Let me further... add !!

By the way- I am not sure how NDA/ BJP comes back to power in 2019, otherwise ?? For... people may be asking... where is the money ?? ( their... Rs 15 lakhs in the bank account ?? )

By engaging in any war... in cahoots with any western country... there are chances that BJP may destroy itself completely. Forever !! Let me state this outright.

I hope... that BJP does not lead the country in a never-ending arms race.

I hope that BJP/ RSS does not try to protect that enormous amount of Indian wealth... sent overseas.
In... any-which-ways.


In this context... is it that the...
The signing of LEMOA by the defence minister... points to the desire of the RSS leadership that the country sits on the lap of the USA ?? Or... is it perhaps the other way round ?

I hope there are real patriotic people in the BJP/ RSS as also on the Captain's team, who call the... actual shots ?? Merely being cadres of a nationalistic party and RSS ain't sufficient to run the country in/ during... tricky times. As... todays.

...
...
...

Now, in this context let me jog the memory of RSS/ BJP leadership with the following data and some rough extrapolations. ( Note - I had always been a thoroughly blind RSS/ BJP loyalist. But... being 'blind' is... certainly... no more the case. )...


BJP polled almost 30 % of ALL THE POLLED VOTES in the LS polls during Q2, 2014.

Let's re-work this datum. This DATUM translates to...

Assuming that... 65 % average overall voting in poll booths; And... 65 % of the population is eligible to vote. ( i.e. over the age group of 18 years.)

= 30 % of 65 % of 65 % of 128 crores = 0.30 X 0.65 X .65 X 128 crores = 16.224 crores approx. ONLY !!

NOW...
BJP MUST NOT consider that 16.224 crores people voting for BJP is TANTAMOUNT to a... MAMMOTH MANDATE !!


This also means that almost 128-16.23 crores = 111.77 CRORES approx. of the INDIAN PEOPLE have -
a) NOT considered BJP to be a worthwhile ruling party, &/ OR
b) had NO role in the election process ( => they were underage ), &/ OR
c) did NOT choose to exercise their choice !! or... chose... NOTA !!

Now... is this UNDERSTOOD by ALL the concerned parties !! Including the... Captain and his... mates ??


NOTABLE TAKEAWAY FOR THE BJP/ RSS LEADERSHIP -


In effect... NO more than 15 crores !! of the total population of the country voted for BJP ( of a total of... 125 or 128 crores ).

This roughly boils down to = 15/125 =  almost 12 % approx., of the country's population went with BJP !!

Alternatively...

= 16.224/128 = 12.7 % approx. went with BJP !!

So... in the BEST case scenario... BJP had a 12-13 % voters supporting it in LS polls - 2014. Notably... in an anti-incumbency situation in 2019 this number may NOT work out to the extent of 12-13 % ?? !!

It might very well be a single digit number !!


CAUTION !!


Moreover the Indian rural + semi-urban masses have seen the reality of the Rs. 15 lakhs carrot... doled out by BJP super-star campaigner... and are going to demand hard answers on this front in 2019. Be sure... aware... thus.

In fact... they are already showing their angst... as in Bihar !!

Wait for Punjab and UP, next year.



IMPORTANTLY... and... AGAIN...

My own prescience had guided me... that we DO NOT get into any tricky situation with either the PRC or Pakistan !!

In this context... I seek to be pardoned for NOT having a thorough knowledge of the situation, etc. ... but, my limited knowledge ( mostly gained from media )/ understanding/ gut feeling compels me to tell this straight to the BRICS members ( esp. to Russia and PRC )...

In case they want the BRICS and... especially the RIC alliance to blossom... then our mutual levels of engagement must see an ever continual growth.

That... this mutual relation ( by what-ever means ) needs to be ratcheted up, gradually.

In this context...
Whilst NRIs and PIOs well entrenched in the western society ( esp. USA, UK, etc. ) might always try to strengthen the Indo-US bonds ( perhaps... primarily for their own and their masters' selfish motives and motivations ).

And... these are moneyed and real powerful people.

This same sort of Indian crowd might be lacking in the Russian and the Chinese cities ! Notably and understandably !!

So... basically the major Indian stake-holders for BRICS and the RIC strategic alliance are the majority of the resident Indian populace ( notably more than 96 % )... rather than those based in the western countries. Let this be understood. And... I am NOT sure to what extent these 96 % + guys have found as requisite representation in the current establishment/ system/  Govt. ??

I remain one of those... who bats for BRICS.

So...
May I most humbly suggest to PRC to shelve or else considerably slow down the proposed "corridor" in Pakistan. For... this actually passes through the 'unresolved' and tricky areas of the Kashmir region.

And... it is MOST apt that PRC lets go any proceedings in this arena... till the time the Indian Govt. finds a mutual resolution on the same issue with Pakistan... understandably and hopefully with... endless dialogues and engagements. Any... other choice exercised might prove disastrous.

SO... in effect PRC MUST NOT get drawn in the PoK territories.


This basic CBM/ action... safeguards the BRICS to a great extent. After all... USD 46 Billions is NOT so great an amount !!

Maybe it is - for Pakistan. Never - for India or China.

IMPORTANTLY...
I am going to show ( in another post ) how almost this whole amount can be saved in almost an years' time. !! By any of us countries, if we so choose to. And... how ? And... why ?


AGAIN... MOST IMPORTANTLY...
those who have siphoned off enormous amounts of Indian wealth to western countries... MUST NOT get a handle to create certain situations.... sort of a pretext that forces the Indian Govt. to... muster up treaties/ agreements etc. with any western country... on a fly... on whatever pretext !!

Similar to the... British ( = Angrez ) days.

Humbly requesting the Russian leadership to ensure that PRC sees the situation as it is... rather than proceed their desired way.

This perhaps saves the BRICS... from any potential collapse down the line... and this somehow might brighten the chances that... leads to a truly multipolar world.

For... if the BRICS fails... then we are looking at a unipolar = NWO world.

For... if the Indian concerns are NOT taken care of by the premier BRICS partners, then... the Indian establishment might want to gradually/ slowly cut loose of such an alliance. And... were that to transpire. Then, down the line... sooner or later the Russians might lose the desire/ motive/ motivations for... BRICS. They might be gradually endlessly enticed/ enamored to the concept of a unipolar world wherein they have a much greater say... and choose to be an equal part of it, rather than fighting it out. This might, in that case, unfold over a... 5-10-20 years time frame. I do believe so.

For sure... a unipolar world might be dictated 100 % by the Indian elites... and their (hither-to) covert gone overt ( by then ) western partners !!

I understand that many people around the world DO NOT want to see this happening. Including myself.

I hope this apt pointer is understood and appreciated WELL by the BRICS members and stake-holders.



PART TWO :


AAA) Refer to the following links -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_1998

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12th_Lok_Sabha

12th Lok Sabha

List of Members of the 12th Lok Sabha, (10 March 1998 – 26 April 1999) after Indian general election, 1998 held during February–March 1998.

S.No.     Party Name     Party flag         Number of MPs

1     Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)         182
2     Indian National Congress (INC)         141

3     Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M))     32
4     Samajwadi Party (SP)                  20
5     All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)     18
6     Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)                  17

7     Samata Party (SAP)             12
8     Telugu Desam Party (TDP)          12
9     Biju Janata Dal (BJD)              9
10     Communist Party of India (CPI)          9
11     Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)         8

...
...
...

Now... refer for the Kargil war, the link...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War

The Kargil War (Hindi: करगिल युद्ध kargil yuddh, Urdu: کرگل جنگ ‎ kargil jang), also known as the Kargil conflict,[note (I)] was an armed conflict between India and Pakistan that took place between May and July 1999 in the Kargil district of Kashmir and elsewhere along the Line of Control (LOC). In India, the conflict is also referred to as Operation Vijay (Hindi: विजय, lit. "Victory") which was the name of the Indian operation to clear the Kargil sector.[17]


NOTABLY...

BBB)

Brigadier Surinder Singh, the first officer sacked by the Indian Army after the Kargil war for incompetence, has blamed the army authorities for engaging troops in catching animals for a zoo in Leh and completely-ignoring the reports of a threat from the enemy in the days leading to the Kargil war.

...

NOTABLE POINT-

I recall that way back in 1999 I had chanced across some media news that... the field officer ( or, was it Corps. Commander ?? ) in one of the regions ( was it... Batalik or Draas ? ) had informed the Army head-quarters about 'suspicious' activities or a real potential inflitration bid/ threat in the sector... started since January, 1999 and ongoing... even in February and later. But... this honest and diligent officer... perhaps a Jatt or Khatri Sikh... was penalised and immediately removed from the soon-to-be-affected area. And, posted in another far-flung region. Maybe, later... suspended. I guess... his career might have been most unscrupulously unraveled.

Why ? For... doing his duty right ?

I guess Kargil might NOT have EVER happened if this Sardar Jee officer was heeded to... by the Army/ intelliegcne top brass and... the BJP Govt. at the centre, at that time.



Ultimately...
...we see that BJP politically gained out of this 'nationalistic' fervor generated.

But... ask the family members of those officers/ jawans who lost their lives on the back of the war cry... "Yeh Dil Maange More" ?

I write this whole post... especially in context with them.



CCC) Musharraf 'spent a night in India ahead of Kargil conflict' -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-2272263/Musharraf-spent-night-India-ahead-Kargil.html


FEW QUESTIONS-

How is this possible ?

Are there chances that... the intelligence agencies and the Army were sleeping in these areas ? Or... is it an empty boast ? I am sure... this is NOT an empty boast by retd. Gen Musharraf !!

In that case- did he get any in-house Indian support, in any manner, from any Indian people in that area ?

What are the chances that any of these INDIAN guys are in high positions in the system or within the Govt., presently ?? Can anyone make out ?

Supposing that the boast is true... then... have any of these guys erstwhile posted in the locale been given out of term favors/ promotions, since that times ? Or, even their relatives ?



DDD)
Refer to the following links -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_1999

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/13th_Lok_Sabha

...

13th Lok Sabha
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 13th Lok Sabha (10 October 1999 – 6 February 2004) is the thirteenth session of the Lok Sabha (House of the People, or lower house in the Parliament of India). It was convened after Indian general election, 1999 held during September–October 1999[1] and continued until June 2004, when the 14th Lok Sabha was convened.

List of members by political party
S.No.     Party Name     Party flag     Number of MPs

1     Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)         303 ( Or, is it 203 ? )
2     Indian National Congress (INC)          114
3     Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M))     33
4     Telugu Desam Party (TDP)          29

5     Samajwadi Party (SP)              26
6     Janata Dal (United) (JD(U))          21
7     Shiv Sena (SS)                 15
8     Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)         14
9     Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)     12
10     All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)     10
11     Biju Janata Dal (BJD)                    10


ENDPOINT-
I guess Kargil might NOT have EVER happened if this Sardar Jee officer was heeded to... by the Army/ intelliegcne top brass and... the BJP Govt. at the centre, at that time.

Ultimately...
...we see that BJP gained out of this 'nationalistic' fervour.

I hope and wish that BJP/ RSS understands that the Indian masses may NOT want to see any war in the BJP's tenure. This time around !!

BETTER NOTE THIS !!


They better understand this. And... understand this way-too-good !!


END NOTES -

111) BTW - USD 300 TRILLIONS is such an enormous amounts of money that nearly 7-10 crore of Indians can easily go and settle down comfortably in diverse foreign lands. Forever !! And... they may not care even if the this motherland is perpetually engulfed in endless internal strifes and wars.

These guys may choose to come back as and when the situation settles down and betters... per their needs/ requirements.


222) I find a certain ( perhaps/ almost 100 % ) coherence in thoughts... in line with the following post -

India’s strategic autonomy is worth preserving

 

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2016/08/26/indias-strategic-autonomy-is-worth-preserving/


333) This post is solely written so as to dither and prevent any/ all of the way-ward minds/ plans from any-hows going astray !!

Reformat Please !! Lest it is way... too late !!



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