Indian Fuel Consumption Pattern
1) India's oil import bill likely to be... Rs 5 lakh crore in FY'16 ; Nov, 2015
Thanks... and... Courtesy -
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-11-25/news/68560927_1_oil-import-bill-petroleum-product-exports-lakh-crore
- India imported 189.43 million tons of crude oil in 2014-15 for Rs 6.87 lakh crores.
- This fiscal of 2015-16 the imports are projected at 188.23 million tons, almost the same level as last year.
- According to data available from Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, the country imported 114.9 million tons of crude during April- October for $43.6 billion.
- Going by the trend, PPAC projected an import of 188.23 million tons for $73.28 billion or Rs 4.73 lakh crore.
IMPORTANT NOTES ( based on the INR-$ exchange rate and the crude brent pricing ) -
- A $1 per barrel change in crude price impacts the net import bill by Rs 3,513 crore or $0.54 billion.
- Similarly, Re one variation in exchange rate impacts the import bill by Rs 2,972 crores ($0.46 billion).
2) Why The Future Of Urban Transport Is The Bus, And Not Necessarily The Metro - R Jagannathan; July 26, 2016
http://swarajyamag.com/ideas/why-the-future-of-urban-transport-is-the-bus-and-not-necessarily-the-metro
3) http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/fuel-consumption-in-India
4) http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/Fuel-consumption-grows-67-in-May-import-dependence-goes-up-to-819/articleshow/52849875.cms
5) http://www.indiastat.com/table/petroleum/25/consumptionofpetroleumproducts19502016/379578/914249/data.aspx
http://www.indiastat.com/table/petroleum/25/consumptionofpetroleumproducts19502016/379578/978125/data.aspx
6) http://www.ibtimes.co.in/indias-refineries-go-capacity-deficit-by-2030-686283
http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/india-s-rising-obsession-with-diesel-worries-govt/article1-841575.aspx
7) http://www.ibtimes.co.in/indias-fuel-consumption-hit-record-high-may-2016-diesel-drive-economy-686435
- India guzzled a record high of 2.08 million tonne (MT) of petrol and 6.96 MT of diesel in May 2016.
8) http://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?country=in&product=oil&graph=consumption
9) Thanks... and... Courtesy -
http://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/fuel-demand-likely-to-rise-by-7-3-per-cent-in-india-2771326/
- Fuel demand likely to rise by 7.3 per cent in India
- Fuel consumption, which rose 10.9 per cent in 2015-16, to 183.5 million tonnes, is projected to rise to 190.03 million tonnes, according to demand estimates made by Oil Ministry.
- Diesel demand, which soared 7.5 per cent to 74.6 million tonnes last fiscal, is projected to further go up by 7.7 per cent to 78.11 million tonnes.
- The consumption of petrol is projected to rise by 12.4 per cent to 24.14 million tonnes. Petrol consumption was up 14.5 per cent at 21.8 million tonnes in 2015-16.
- Naphtha consumption is projected to rise by 5.5 per cent to 13.6 million tonnes in 2016-17. Also in 2015-16, Naphtha consumption was 20.9 per cent higher at 13.4 million tonnes.
- ATF or jet fuel sale is projected to rise 3.9 per cent to 6.18 million tonnes. ATF or jet fuel consumption was up 8.7 per cent at 6.22 million tonnes in 2015-16, indicating robust growth in air traffic.
- Cooking gas LPG whose consumption is projected to rise by 9.3 per cent to 21.16 million tonnes. Also in 2015-16, LPG sales were up 8.6 per cent at 19.5 million tonnes.
- Kerosene sale, however, is projected to fall 10 per cent to six million tonnes as government pushes for use of cleaner LPG in households instead of the heavily subsidized kerosene.
- Kerosene demand fell to 6.82 million tonnes in 2015-16 from 7.02 million tonnes.
10) India's petroleum consumption growth at record high. IANS | May 11, 2016, 04.42 PM IST
Thanks... and... Courtesy -
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Indias-petroleum-consumption-growth-at-record-high/articleshow/52222854.cms
- Total petroleum product consumption growth as reported by the government's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) was at a multi-year high of 10.9 percent in 2015-16, compared to an average growth of 5 percent and a previous high of 7 percent in both 2007 and 2008.
- Per PPAC : higher demand for both transportation and static equipment for infrastructure projects, poor rainfall leading to higher pump usage and growth of e-commerce leading to retailing of goods movement have been factors contributing to higher diesel consumption.
11) Fuel consumption in India rose to 8-year high in FY16
Thanks... and... Courtesy -
http://www.ibtimes.co.in/fuel-consumption-india-rose-8-year-high-fy16-675214
April, 2016
http://data1.ibtimes.co.in/cache-img-0-450/en/full/605069/1460983661_india-petrol-fuel-consumption-petrol-station-fuel-station.jpg
- India's fuel consumption rose 11 percent in financial year 2015-16.
- Fuel consumption in India rose to an eight-year high in financial year 2015-16. The spurt was attributed to a fall in average retail prices of petrol and diesel triggered by plunging crude oil prices globally.
- Total petroleum products consumption increased at ~11% in FY16 after eight years with high growth across products (except kerosene) despite largely strong bases in FY15
Petrol
- Petrol (gasoline) consumption witnessed a growth of about 15 percent, a 17-year-high, caused by an approximately 8 percent reduction in average petrol prices that probably resulted in higher consumption.
Diesel
- A 14 percent fall in average retail prices saw diesel consumption rise to a four-year-high of 8 percent. A deficit monsoon leading to increased use of diesel-powered generators and an overall increase in transportation services led to higher diesel consumption.
Aviation Fuel
- The Indian civil aviation sector posted consistently high passenger traffic growth during the year. This, coupled with a fall in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices, led to jet fuel consumption sky-rocketing to a nine-year-high of 12 percent.
- The international crude oil price of Indian basket stood at $40.21 per barrel (bbl) on April 15, an increase of almost 9 percent from $36.98 per barrel a fortnight ago, according to an official statement released on Monday by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.
- India is the world's third-largest consumer of oil and has benefited a lot from falling crude oil prices globally since it imports about 80 percent of its fuel requirement.
12) India's Fuel Demand Rises to Record on Gasoline, Diesel Growth
Thanks... and... Courtesy -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-13/india-s-fuel-demand-rises-to-record-on-gasoline-diesel-growth
- India’s fuel demand grew 11 percent in the year ended March 31, the fastest pace in records going back to fiscal 2001.
- Fuel use rose to 183.5 million metric tons from 165.5 million tons in the previous period, according to preliminary data on the website of the Oil Ministry’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell.
- Diesel consumption rose 7.5 percent to 74.6 million tons, while gasoline usage rose 14.5 percent to 21.8 million tons.
- India is replacing China as the world’s oil-demand growth driver as its economy expands faster than any other major country and a growing middle class has more money to spend.
- The International Energy Agency estimates India to account for a quarter of global energy demand growth by 2040 as booming manufacturing and a bigger, richer and more-urbanized population will drive fuel growth. It expects the country’s oil demand to reach 10 million barrels a day in the next quarter of a century, marking the fastest growth in the world.
- In addition to the boost from low oil prices, structural and policy-driven changes are underway that have resulted in India’s oil demand ‘taking off’ in a similar way to China’s during the late 1990s, analysts... said in a note.
- These changes include a rise in per capita oil consumption, a massive programme of road construction and a push towards increasing the share of manufacturing in GDP.
- Indian Oil, which controls more than half of fuel sales in the country, expects gasoline sales this fiscal to climb 11 percent and diesel by about 3 percent.
13)
Thanks... and... Courtesy -
http://capitalmind.in/2016/07/how-much-more-fuel-does-india-consume/
July, 2016
- India with the world’s second largest population has been seeing a steady increase in oil demand.
- The current consumption rate for India is 4.2 million barrels per day (mbpd).
- India currently is the third largest oil consumer after US (19.39 mbpd) and China (11.96 mbpd), followed closely by Japan (4.15 mbpd).
- Data from petroleum and planning cell indicates Diesel is 40% of all oil Consumption
- The average diesel consumption in March-2016 was 1.56 mbpd. Where as petrol accounted for a modest 12% of total consumption, with average consumption in March-2016 at 0.47 mbpd. The average consumption of LPG in March-2016 was at 0.422 mbpd and accounted for 10% of its total oil consumption.
- Though petrol accounts for only 12% of the total India’s oil consumption, but it has the fastest growth in consumption in petroleum products at 15.26% (3 month moving average). Diesel and LPG have the consumption growth at 11.28% and 11.39%.
- Petrol usage has significantly increased from start of FY15, The increase can be attributed to lowering petrol prices and significant rise in sales of two wheelers. Petrol car sales have also seen a tremendous rise mainly due to the converging petrol and diesel prices and as a matter of fact, petrol cars are lot cheaper compared to diesel ones.
- According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, car sales increased by 5.6% in FY16, to 2.7 million units. In comparison, 25 million cars were sold in China during the same period, while 4.9 million were sold in Japan. As you can see, India’s just getting started.
- The motorization rate in India as of 2014 is 22 cars per 1000 persons, where as for China and Japan it is 102 and 607 respectively. This indicates the immense potential India has in terms of car usage growth, and thus, oil demand.
- Additionally, demand comes from diesel generators (which power a number of homes, apartments and commercial buildings). But here, as wholesale power generation increases, distribution of grid power could reduce diesel demand over time. The big oil demand will still be from vehicles.
- India’s growing oil demand is seen as a substitute for the slowing demand in developed economies by the oil producers. ( Now... who says this ? )
- According to a report by International Energy Agency, by 2040, India will add 6.0 mbpd to the global demand, while China – only 4.9 mbpd, while driving the global oil supply and demand gap.
- Oil is India’s largest import and the concern is that this demand will push up the trade deficit.
- While India’s metros are cramped and overpopulated with vehicles, the smaller towns and villages need efficient transportation – and for that, there is really no alternative to cars, buses or trucks. It makes sense to restrict cities from smogging up the landscape, but we have to allow the smaller towns and villages their transport.
- Oil demand will continue to increase, and reflects economic activity; but at some point, we’ll need to either find oil locally, or push to aggressively adopt electric cars in order to reduce import demand.
14) Press Information Bureau, Government of India, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, January-2014
Thanks... and... Courtesy -
Source -
http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=102799
- 70% of Diesel is consumed by Transport Sector
- 13.15% of Diesel Consumed by private cars and UVs, 8.94% by commercial cars & UVs and 6.39% by 3-wheelers; Trucks account for 28.25%, Buses 9.55% and Railways about 3.24%
- Agriculture Sector uses 13% of Diesel; industry consumes 9.02% including industry gensets with 4.06% and Mobile Towers 1.54%
- 99.6 % of Petrol consumed by Transport Sector
Two-wheelers top Petrol consumption with 61.42% followed by cars with 34.33% and 3-wheelers with 2.34%
...
...
- An All India Study conducted by M/s Nielsen (India) Pvt Ltd for Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of Petroleum Ministry has thrown up interesting data about use of diesel and petrol sold across various states.
- As per the All India study report submitted to PPAC, 70% of diesel and 99.6% petrol is consumed in the transport sector alone.
- Of the total diesel sale, the highest consumption of 28.48 is by cars, utility vehicles (UVs) and 3-wheelers. It was also revealed that private cars & UVs account for 13.15%, commercial cars & UVs 8.94% and 3-wheelers 6.39% of the diesel sold in the country.
- In case of Petrol, 99.6% is consumed in the transport sector. Of this majority consumption of 61.42% is accounted for by Two-Wheelers while cars use 34.33% followed by 3-wheelers at 2.34%. It was also revealed that in the States of Odisha, Bihar and Rajasthan, petrol consumption by two-wheelers exceeds 70%.
Results of the Survey
The summarized aggregated results (including both retail and direct) sales for Diesel and Petrol are given below:-
Diesel
- Transport sector is the major consumer of diesel accounting for 70% of the total Diesel sales.
- The share of Diesel consumption by cars, utility vehicles and 3-wheeler sector is highest at 28.48%. Out of this, Private cars and UVs accounted for 13.15%, Commercial cars and UVs
8.94% and 3-wheelers 6.39% of the total Diesel consumption. Trucks (HCV/LCV) account for only 28.25% of the Diesel consumption. Buses consume about 9.55% and railways about 3.24%.
- The agriculture sector is a major consumer of Diesel with about 13% of the total consumption accounted for by it. Within agriculture, the consumption is as follows: tractors (7.4%), pump-sets (2.9%) and agriculture implements (2.7%). Tractors have a higher consumption presumably because they are also used for non-agricultural purposes like transportation of construction material such as bricks, stones, mined sand, etc. and for transporting people in rural areas.
- Diesel consumption by other segments is 17 per cent. This comprises of industry 9.02% (of which industry genesets is 4.06 % and others for industrial purposes is 4.96%), mobile towers (1.54%) and others (6.45%) comprising of gensets for non-industrial purposes, civil construction, etc.
Petrol
- Petrol is almost entirely (99.6%) consumed by the transport sector.
· Two-wheelers account for 61.42% of total Petrol sales while that by Cars is 34.33%. 3-wheelers account for only 2.34%.
- In states like Odisha (82.3%), Bihar (75.2%) and Rajasthan (72.9%), consumption of Petrol by two-wheelers exceeds 70%.
- The consumption by three-wheelers is very low in states like Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat and Odisha, where consumers have shifted to CNG or Diesel.
- While pricing of Petrol was deregulated, Diesel prices are still being regulated, with under recoveries running at Rs. 8.47 per litre currently. The total under recovery on Diesel during 2012-13 was Rs. 92,061 crores, constituting 57.2% per cent of the total under recoveries/subsidies on all petroleum products. The question as to where the Diesel is getting consumed is very relevant in this context.
- Based on the above sector-wise consumption pattern of Diesel, it would mean that of the total under recovery of Rs. 92,061 crores on account of Diesel during 2012-13, about Rs. 12,100 crores went to owners of private cars and utility vehicles (UV), about Rs. 8,200 crores to commercial cars and UV, about Rs. 26,000 crores to HCV/LCV, about Rs. 8,800 crores to Buses, about Rs. 12,000 crores to agriculture sector and about Rs. 15,600 crores to other sector.
The detailed segment-wise consumption for Diesel is given in Annexure-I and for Petrol in Annexure-II.
The detailed zone-wise/ segment-wise consumption for Diesel (Retail sales only available) is given in Annexure-III and for Petrol (Retail sales only) in Annexure-IV.
The Survey
The Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), an attached office of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas (www.ppac.org.in), in association with the Public Sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), commissioned an “All India Study on Sectoral Demand of Diesel & Petrol” through M/s Nielsen (India) Private Limited to estimate the shares of various sectors/ segments in Diesel and Petrol sold through Retail Outlets (ROs) on State level and on all India basis.
The breakup of sectors/ categories is based on end-use of the fuels as mentioned below:
A. Diesel:
i. Transport with sub-categories such as Buses, HCVs, LCVs, Taxies & Utility Vehicles/ Cars (Personal/ Commercial Vehicles)
ii. Agriculture with sub-categories such as Tractors, Pumping Sets, Tillers/ Harvesters/ Thrashers
iii. Power Generation (Gensets)
iv. Industrial Applications other than for power generation
v. ‘Others’ for what is not included in any of the above categories.
A. Petrol
i. Cars; 2-wheelers /3-wheelers; SUVs ; Others
- The survey was carried out in four rounds of three months each and the geographic spread of the study included 150 districts in 16 States, which covered more than 91% of the total retail sales of Diesel in the country.
- A sample of over 2,000 ROs chosen systematically from among above 16 States and 150 districts in each round of the study.
Background
The total Diesel sold in the country during 2012-13 was 69,080 TMT and Petrol was 15,744 TMT. While Diesel constitutes 44% of total consumption of petroleum products in India, Petrol accounts for 10%.
Out of the total Petrol and Diesel sales in the country, more than 99% of the Petrol and 90% of the Diesel is sold through retail outlets (petrol pumps), for which there is no system of capturing the consumption data of the sectors and categories based on their end-use. However, the sector-wise consumption of Diesel sold directly by the Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) is available. The data related to sectoral consumption of these products is an important input for any policy formulation.
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ADDENDA -
This, too, remains a high priority area...
Electronic goods: Demand set to surpass oil bill by 2020 !!
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Source -
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ElectronicsGoods.htm
Dec, 2015
Electronic goods: Demand set to surpass oil bill by 2020
- India is one of the largest growing electronics markets in the world with an estimated size of US$ 69.6 billion in 2012.
- With a CAGR of 24%, it is expected to surpass the US $ 400 billion mark by 2020 CE.
- However, sharp growth in demand for electronic goods is unlikely to translate to higher domestic production, which is currently at US$32.7 billion and likely to cross US$104 billion by 2022E.
- While the domestic industry will cater to only a fourth of this demand, India will still need to import goods worth US $ 300 billion, roughly equivalent to the country’s oil import bill.
- Till 2015, electronics imports at US$37 billion were the third highest import item next only to crude and gold. However, in the first six months of FY16, the import bill of electronics goods (at ~US$16 billion) has already surpassed total gold import (at ~US$15 billion) and is behind only the total oil import bill.
- Now, India is staring at an import nightmare of an unprecedented rise in proportion of electronic goods that can push the country into a spiral of high imports. This would necessarily entail higher external and internal borrowings and does not bode well for India’s economy in the long term.
:::
- India faces structural trade deficit problems
- In the last 15 years, India’s current account deficit (CAD) has been in focus, along with its fiscal deficit. During FY01-15, India’s total import bill grew at a CAGR of 16.8% to US$448 billion in FY15 largely driven by petroleum products and gold, which recorded a CAGR of 16.8% and 16.4%, respectively. During the same period, exports grew at a CAGR of 14.8% in FY01-15 from to US$310 billion in FY15.
- To address the rising trade deficit, GoI and RBI took a few decisions to curtail local demand in the petroleum and gold sectors to reduce their imports and, hence, the deficit. Meanwhile, with the recent decline in crude oil prices and diminishing allure of gold, a few problems have automatically got addressed. This has reduced the contribution of crude and gold in the total import bill by ~200 bps in FY15 to 30.9% and 8.7%, respectively, compared to FY13.
- However, looking at the recent trend, the contribution of electronic goods in the total import bill has increased 150 bps to 8.2% in FY15 compared to FY13.
- With the rising trend of digitisation, it is likely that the contribution of electronics goods to the total import bill would increase significantly and may surpass the gold and oil bill, going ahead.
Import of major three items
Electronic imports to amplify structural trade deficit problems
- With an import bill of US$37 billion in FY15, electronic goods comprised 8.2% of total imports making it the third most valued category of imports after petroleum products (30.9%) and gold (8.7%).
- In the last 15 years, the import bill of electronics goods recorded a CAGR of 18.3%, higher than the import bill of petroleum products and gold, which grew at a CAGR of 16.8% and 16.4%, respectively. India’s electronic goods production was inadequate to meet demand due to deficiency in skill level to compete with imported products. Hence, to meet the rising demand, India is heavily dependent on import of electronics goods from China, US and other South East Asian regions. If we dig deep, the main reason behind the rising import of electronic goods is shortfall in domestic production. Local production faces a substantial cost disadvantage constraining investment in plants and equipment, technology absorption, development capability and innovation. Given the weakness in domestic production, India’s growing demand for electronic products results in rising imports. Currently, imports account for 65% of India’s consumption of electronic products in India, up from 63.6% in FY11.
- At the current growth rate, the demand-supply gap for electronics goods is projected to accelerate further from US$25 billion in FY09 to US$296 billion in FY20. This is expected to result in a sharp increase in trade deficit, going forward. Considering the current scenario, to reach the US$400 billion mark by FY20, domestic production would need to grow 37% annually in FY13-20, a daunting task indeed.
:::
Projected demand supply gap of electronics goods
Import of total electronics items in India
Proportion of phone instruments and mobile phones in total import
Domestic manufacturing lags behind import
- Electronics manufacturing in India is struggling despite huge and rapidly growing domestic demand. Local electronics manufacturing, especially in ‘chip-designing’ facility have remained disconnected from global networks of innovations and productions, resulting in rising imports of final products and dependency on imports for key components.
- Over the years, local manufacturers faced barriers in the form of restrictive regulations and a largely poor implementation of past policies, which stymied investments in plants and equipment, technology absorption and innovations. This could be attributed to high cost of finance at ~11-13% (cost of fund) against 2-4% globally, high power cost due to irregular power supply, etc. This, coupled with higher tax imposed by the Indian government, makes manufacturing of electronic products unviable in the country. For example, India currently has a tax rate of 16% with a value added tax of anywhere between 4% and 12% depending on the state, on PCs and servers manufactured in the country. However, the duty on imported PCs is a mere 17.42%, which makes imports much more viable than domestic manufacturing of electronic products. India also signed the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) with the World Trade Organisation in 1997, which compelled the country to reduce import duties to zero on several electronic products, including servers and desktops.
Currently, 65% of demand for electronic products is met by imports while even the balance 35%, which is manufactured in India, is mainly ‘low value added manufacturing’. Unlike China and other low cost manufacturing Asian countries, India has to shift gears from relying exclusively on “high-volume, low-cost” manufacture to pursue a niche market strategy by focusing on “low volume, high cost” products.
Focused approach to yield better results
The Indian electronic industry (~US$70 billion) is considered to be one of the largest growing electronics markets in the world but constitutes just 0.7% of the global electronic industry. Hence, it is miniscule by global standards. As far as Indian electronic products consumption pattern is concerned, top five products that contribute ~60% of total electronic consumption are: mobile phones (~40%), flat panel TVs (~9%), laptops (~6%) and desktop (~5%). Among major electronic products, the semiconductor design industry and LED are expected to record fastest growth at a CAGR of 25% and 108% in FY12-20E, respectively. Looking at the rising demand for circuit based high value products and near absence of domestic manufacturing, it has now become essential for India to become strong in electronic systems and integrated circuit design to provide a strong base for manufacturing “low-volume, high value” electronic products. To make this possible, India would need to develop circuit design-and-development capabilities (which is largely done by MNCs currently), with India based companies serving India’s domestic market. India’s fragmented innovation system, characterised by weak links between education, research and industry, makes the task even more challenging. The government’s National Policy on Electronics is an important step to address this issue.
Indian Electronics Market: Top 20 Products by TM Revenues (2012)
:::
Leap from consumer to manufacturer imperative for long term growth
The Indian electronics industry is at a huge inflection point.
From being predominantly consumption driven, the electronics industry has major potential to transform to a manufacturing industry. However, for sustaining structural long term growth, the Indian manufacturing sector needs to match global standards. Concentrated efforts are required on part of both the government and the industry to develop the Indian electronics industry into one of the critical GDP contributors in the near future. In the recent past, global companies have got attracted to India on the back of continuous effort on part of the government and a relatively low cost structure. Companies from around the world are looking to build local capabilities in India not just to serve the domestic market but also to cater to overseas markets. Hence, identification of high priority product markets and holistic development of the ecosystem can potentially solve all the woes of the Indian electronic system design & manufacturing industry.
< EoP >
1) India's oil import bill likely to be... Rs 5 lakh crore in FY'16 ; Nov, 2015
Thanks... and... Courtesy -
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-11-25/news/68560927_1_oil-import-bill-petroleum-product-exports-lakh-crore
- India imported 189.43 million tons of crude oil in 2014-15 for Rs 6.87 lakh crores.
- This fiscal of 2015-16 the imports are projected at 188.23 million tons, almost the same level as last year.
- According to data available from Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, the country imported 114.9 million tons of crude during April- October for $43.6 billion.
- Going by the trend, PPAC projected an import of 188.23 million tons for $73.28 billion or Rs 4.73 lakh crore.
IMPORTANT NOTES ( based on the INR-$ exchange rate and the crude brent pricing ) -
- A $1 per barrel change in crude price impacts the net import bill by Rs 3,513 crore or $0.54 billion.
- Similarly, Re one variation in exchange rate impacts the import bill by Rs 2,972 crores ($0.46 billion).
2) Why The Future Of Urban Transport Is The Bus, And Not Necessarily The Metro - R Jagannathan; July 26, 2016
http://swarajyamag.com/ideas/why-the-future-of-urban-transport-is-the-bus-and-not-necessarily-the-metro
3) http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/fuel-consumption-in-India
4) http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/Fuel-consumption-grows-67-in-May-import-dependence-goes-up-to-819/articleshow/52849875.cms
5) http://www.indiastat.com/table/petroleum/25/consumptionofpetroleumproducts19502016/379578/914249/data.aspx
http://www.indiastat.com/table/petroleum/25/consumptionofpetroleumproducts19502016/379578/978125/data.aspx
6) http://www.ibtimes.co.in/indias-refineries-go-capacity-deficit-by-2030-686283
http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/india-s-rising-obsession-with-diesel-worries-govt/article1-841575.aspx
7) http://www.ibtimes.co.in/indias-fuel-consumption-hit-record-high-may-2016-diesel-drive-economy-686435
- India guzzled a record high of 2.08 million tonne (MT) of petrol and 6.96 MT of diesel in May 2016.
8) http://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?country=in&product=oil&graph=consumption
9) Thanks... and... Courtesy -
http://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/fuel-demand-likely-to-rise-by-7-3-per-cent-in-india-2771326/
- Fuel demand likely to rise by 7.3 per cent in India
- Fuel consumption, which rose 10.9 per cent in 2015-16, to 183.5 million tonnes, is projected to rise to 190.03 million tonnes, according to demand estimates made by Oil Ministry.
- Diesel demand, which soared 7.5 per cent to 74.6 million tonnes last fiscal, is projected to further go up by 7.7 per cent to 78.11 million tonnes.
- The consumption of petrol is projected to rise by 12.4 per cent to 24.14 million tonnes. Petrol consumption was up 14.5 per cent at 21.8 million tonnes in 2015-16.
- Naphtha consumption is projected to rise by 5.5 per cent to 13.6 million tonnes in 2016-17. Also in 2015-16, Naphtha consumption was 20.9 per cent higher at 13.4 million tonnes.
- ATF or jet fuel sale is projected to rise 3.9 per cent to 6.18 million tonnes. ATF or jet fuel consumption was up 8.7 per cent at 6.22 million tonnes in 2015-16, indicating robust growth in air traffic.
- Cooking gas LPG whose consumption is projected to rise by 9.3 per cent to 21.16 million tonnes. Also in 2015-16, LPG sales were up 8.6 per cent at 19.5 million tonnes.
- Kerosene sale, however, is projected to fall 10 per cent to six million tonnes as government pushes for use of cleaner LPG in households instead of the heavily subsidized kerosene.
- Kerosene demand fell to 6.82 million tonnes in 2015-16 from 7.02 million tonnes.
10) India's petroleum consumption growth at record high. IANS | May 11, 2016, 04.42 PM IST
Thanks... and... Courtesy -
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Indias-petroleum-consumption-growth-at-record-high/articleshow/52222854.cms
- Total petroleum product consumption growth as reported by the government's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) was at a multi-year high of 10.9 percent in 2015-16, compared to an average growth of 5 percent and a previous high of 7 percent in both 2007 and 2008.
- Per PPAC : higher demand for both transportation and static equipment for infrastructure projects, poor rainfall leading to higher pump usage and growth of e-commerce leading to retailing of goods movement have been factors contributing to higher diesel consumption.
11) Fuel consumption in India rose to 8-year high in FY16
Thanks... and... Courtesy -
http://www.ibtimes.co.in/fuel-consumption-india-rose-8-year-high-fy16-675214
April, 2016
http://data1.ibtimes.co.in/cache-img-0-450/en/full/605069/1460983661_india-petrol-fuel-consumption-petrol-station-fuel-station.jpg
- India's fuel consumption rose 11 percent in financial year 2015-16.
- Fuel consumption in India rose to an eight-year high in financial year 2015-16. The spurt was attributed to a fall in average retail prices of petrol and diesel triggered by plunging crude oil prices globally.
- Total petroleum products consumption increased at ~11% in FY16 after eight years with high growth across products (except kerosene) despite largely strong bases in FY15
Petrol
- Petrol (gasoline) consumption witnessed a growth of about 15 percent, a 17-year-high, caused by an approximately 8 percent reduction in average petrol prices that probably resulted in higher consumption.
Diesel
- A 14 percent fall in average retail prices saw diesel consumption rise to a four-year-high of 8 percent. A deficit monsoon leading to increased use of diesel-powered generators and an overall increase in transportation services led to higher diesel consumption.
Aviation Fuel
- The Indian civil aviation sector posted consistently high passenger traffic growth during the year. This, coupled with a fall in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices, led to jet fuel consumption sky-rocketing to a nine-year-high of 12 percent.
- The international crude oil price of Indian basket stood at $40.21 per barrel (bbl) on April 15, an increase of almost 9 percent from $36.98 per barrel a fortnight ago, according to an official statement released on Monday by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.
- India is the world's third-largest consumer of oil and has benefited a lot from falling crude oil prices globally since it imports about 80 percent of its fuel requirement.
12) India's Fuel Demand Rises to Record on Gasoline, Diesel Growth
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-13/india-s-fuel-demand-rises-to-record-on-gasoline-diesel-growth
- India’s fuel demand grew 11 percent in the year ended March 31, the fastest pace in records going back to fiscal 2001.
- Fuel use rose to 183.5 million metric tons from 165.5 million tons in the previous period, according to preliminary data on the website of the Oil Ministry’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell.
- Diesel consumption rose 7.5 percent to 74.6 million tons, while gasoline usage rose 14.5 percent to 21.8 million tons.
- India is replacing China as the world’s oil-demand growth driver as its economy expands faster than any other major country and a growing middle class has more money to spend.
- The International Energy Agency estimates India to account for a quarter of global energy demand growth by 2040 as booming manufacturing and a bigger, richer and more-urbanized population will drive fuel growth. It expects the country’s oil demand to reach 10 million barrels a day in the next quarter of a century, marking the fastest growth in the world.
- In addition to the boost from low oil prices, structural and policy-driven changes are underway that have resulted in India’s oil demand ‘taking off’ in a similar way to China’s during the late 1990s, analysts... said in a note.
- These changes include a rise in per capita oil consumption, a massive programme of road construction and a push towards increasing the share of manufacturing in GDP.
- Indian Oil, which controls more than half of fuel sales in the country, expects gasoline sales this fiscal to climb 11 percent and diesel by about 3 percent.
13)
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http://capitalmind.in/2016/07/how-much-more-fuel-does-india-consume/
July, 2016
- India with the world’s second largest population has been seeing a steady increase in oil demand.
- The current consumption rate for India is 4.2 million barrels per day (mbpd).
- India currently is the third largest oil consumer after US (19.39 mbpd) and China (11.96 mbpd), followed closely by Japan (4.15 mbpd).
- Data from petroleum and planning cell indicates Diesel is 40% of all oil Consumption
- The average diesel consumption in March-2016 was 1.56 mbpd. Where as petrol accounted for a modest 12% of total consumption, with average consumption in March-2016 at 0.47 mbpd. The average consumption of LPG in March-2016 was at 0.422 mbpd and accounted for 10% of its total oil consumption.
- Though petrol accounts for only 12% of the total India’s oil consumption, but it has the fastest growth in consumption in petroleum products at 15.26% (3 month moving average). Diesel and LPG have the consumption growth at 11.28% and 11.39%.
- Petrol usage has significantly increased from start of FY15, The increase can be attributed to lowering petrol prices and significant rise in sales of two wheelers. Petrol car sales have also seen a tremendous rise mainly due to the converging petrol and diesel prices and as a matter of fact, petrol cars are lot cheaper compared to diesel ones.
- According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, car sales increased by 5.6% in FY16, to 2.7 million units. In comparison, 25 million cars were sold in China during the same period, while 4.9 million were sold in Japan. As you can see, India’s just getting started.
- The motorization rate in India as of 2014 is 22 cars per 1000 persons, where as for China and Japan it is 102 and 607 respectively. This indicates the immense potential India has in terms of car usage growth, and thus, oil demand.
- Additionally, demand comes from diesel generators (which power a number of homes, apartments and commercial buildings). But here, as wholesale power generation increases, distribution of grid power could reduce diesel demand over time. The big oil demand will still be from vehicles.
- India’s growing oil demand is seen as a substitute for the slowing demand in developed economies by the oil producers. ( Now... who says this ? )
- According to a report by International Energy Agency, by 2040, India will add 6.0 mbpd to the global demand, while China – only 4.9 mbpd, while driving the global oil supply and demand gap.
- Oil is India’s largest import and the concern is that this demand will push up the trade deficit.
- While India’s metros are cramped and overpopulated with vehicles, the smaller towns and villages need efficient transportation – and for that, there is really no alternative to cars, buses or trucks. It makes sense to restrict cities from smogging up the landscape, but we have to allow the smaller towns and villages their transport.
- Oil demand will continue to increase, and reflects economic activity; but at some point, we’ll need to either find oil locally, or push to aggressively adopt electric cars in order to reduce import demand.
14) Press Information Bureau, Government of India, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, January-2014
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Source -
http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=102799
- 70% of Diesel is consumed by Transport Sector
- 13.15% of Diesel Consumed by private cars and UVs, 8.94% by commercial cars & UVs and 6.39% by 3-wheelers; Trucks account for 28.25%, Buses 9.55% and Railways about 3.24%
- Agriculture Sector uses 13% of Diesel; industry consumes 9.02% including industry gensets with 4.06% and Mobile Towers 1.54%
- 99.6 % of Petrol consumed by Transport Sector
Two-wheelers top Petrol consumption with 61.42% followed by cars with 34.33% and 3-wheelers with 2.34%
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- An All India Study conducted by M/s Nielsen (India) Pvt Ltd for Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of Petroleum Ministry has thrown up interesting data about use of diesel and petrol sold across various states.
- As per the All India study report submitted to PPAC, 70% of diesel and 99.6% petrol is consumed in the transport sector alone.
- Of the total diesel sale, the highest consumption of 28.48 is by cars, utility vehicles (UVs) and 3-wheelers. It was also revealed that private cars & UVs account for 13.15%, commercial cars & UVs 8.94% and 3-wheelers 6.39% of the diesel sold in the country.
- In case of Petrol, 99.6% is consumed in the transport sector. Of this majority consumption of 61.42% is accounted for by Two-Wheelers while cars use 34.33% followed by 3-wheelers at 2.34%. It was also revealed that in the States of Odisha, Bihar and Rajasthan, petrol consumption by two-wheelers exceeds 70%.
Results of the Survey
The summarized aggregated results (including both retail and direct) sales for Diesel and Petrol are given below:-
Diesel
- Transport sector is the major consumer of diesel accounting for 70% of the total Diesel sales.
- The share of Diesel consumption by cars, utility vehicles and 3-wheeler sector is highest at 28.48%. Out of this, Private cars and UVs accounted for 13.15%, Commercial cars and UVs
8.94% and 3-wheelers 6.39% of the total Diesel consumption. Trucks (HCV/LCV) account for only 28.25% of the Diesel consumption. Buses consume about 9.55% and railways about 3.24%.
- The agriculture sector is a major consumer of Diesel with about 13% of the total consumption accounted for by it. Within agriculture, the consumption is as follows: tractors (7.4%), pump-sets (2.9%) and agriculture implements (2.7%). Tractors have a higher consumption presumably because they are also used for non-agricultural purposes like transportation of construction material such as bricks, stones, mined sand, etc. and for transporting people in rural areas.
- Diesel consumption by other segments is 17 per cent. This comprises of industry 9.02% (of which industry genesets is 4.06 % and others for industrial purposes is 4.96%), mobile towers (1.54%) and others (6.45%) comprising of gensets for non-industrial purposes, civil construction, etc.
Petrol
- Petrol is almost entirely (99.6%) consumed by the transport sector.
· Two-wheelers account for 61.42% of total Petrol sales while that by Cars is 34.33%. 3-wheelers account for only 2.34%.
- In states like Odisha (82.3%), Bihar (75.2%) and Rajasthan (72.9%), consumption of Petrol by two-wheelers exceeds 70%.
- The consumption by three-wheelers is very low in states like Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat and Odisha, where consumers have shifted to CNG or Diesel.
- While pricing of Petrol was deregulated, Diesel prices are still being regulated, with under recoveries running at Rs. 8.47 per litre currently. The total under recovery on Diesel during 2012-13 was Rs. 92,061 crores, constituting 57.2% per cent of the total under recoveries/subsidies on all petroleum products. The question as to where the Diesel is getting consumed is very relevant in this context.
- Based on the above sector-wise consumption pattern of Diesel, it would mean that of the total under recovery of Rs. 92,061 crores on account of Diesel during 2012-13, about Rs. 12,100 crores went to owners of private cars and utility vehicles (UV), about Rs. 8,200 crores to commercial cars and UV, about Rs. 26,000 crores to HCV/LCV, about Rs. 8,800 crores to Buses, about Rs. 12,000 crores to agriculture sector and about Rs. 15,600 crores to other sector.
The detailed segment-wise consumption for Diesel is given in Annexure-I and for Petrol in Annexure-II.
The detailed zone-wise/ segment-wise consumption for Diesel (Retail sales only available) is given in Annexure-III and for Petrol (Retail sales only) in Annexure-IV.
The Survey
The Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), an attached office of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas (www.ppac.org.in), in association with the Public Sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), commissioned an “All India Study on Sectoral Demand of Diesel & Petrol” through M/s Nielsen (India) Private Limited to estimate the shares of various sectors/ segments in Diesel and Petrol sold through Retail Outlets (ROs) on State level and on all India basis.
The breakup of sectors/ categories is based on end-use of the fuels as mentioned below:
A. Diesel:
i. Transport with sub-categories such as Buses, HCVs, LCVs, Taxies & Utility Vehicles/ Cars (Personal/ Commercial Vehicles)
ii. Agriculture with sub-categories such as Tractors, Pumping Sets, Tillers/ Harvesters/ Thrashers
iii. Power Generation (Gensets)
iv. Industrial Applications other than for power generation
v. ‘Others’ for what is not included in any of the above categories.
A. Petrol
i. Cars; 2-wheelers /3-wheelers; SUVs ; Others
- The survey was carried out in four rounds of three months each and the geographic spread of the study included 150 districts in 16 States, which covered more than 91% of the total retail sales of Diesel in the country.
- A sample of over 2,000 ROs chosen systematically from among above 16 States and 150 districts in each round of the study.
Background
The total Diesel sold in the country during 2012-13 was 69,080 TMT and Petrol was 15,744 TMT. While Diesel constitutes 44% of total consumption of petroleum products in India, Petrol accounts for 10%.
Out of the total Petrol and Diesel sales in the country, more than 99% of the Petrol and 90% of the Diesel is sold through retail outlets (petrol pumps), for which there is no system of capturing the consumption data of the sectors and categories based on their end-use. However, the sector-wise consumption of Diesel sold directly by the Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) is available. The data related to sectoral consumption of these products is an important input for any policy formulation.
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ADDENDA -
This, too, remains a high priority area...
Electronic goods: Demand set to surpass oil bill by 2020 !!
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Source -
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ElectronicsGoods.htm
Dec, 2015
Electronic goods: Demand set to surpass oil bill by 2020
- India is one of the largest growing electronics markets in the world with an estimated size of US$ 69.6 billion in 2012.
- With a CAGR of 24%, it is expected to surpass the US $ 400 billion mark by 2020 CE.
- However, sharp growth in demand for electronic goods is unlikely to translate to higher domestic production, which is currently at US$32.7 billion and likely to cross US$104 billion by 2022E.
- While the domestic industry will cater to only a fourth of this demand, India will still need to import goods worth US $ 300 billion, roughly equivalent to the country’s oil import bill.
- Till 2015, electronics imports at US$37 billion were the third highest import item next only to crude and gold. However, in the first six months of FY16, the import bill of electronics goods (at ~US$16 billion) has already surpassed total gold import (at ~US$15 billion) and is behind only the total oil import bill.
- Now, India is staring at an import nightmare of an unprecedented rise in proportion of electronic goods that can push the country into a spiral of high imports. This would necessarily entail higher external and internal borrowings and does not bode well for India’s economy in the long term.
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- India faces structural trade deficit problems
- In the last 15 years, India’s current account deficit (CAD) has been in focus, along with its fiscal deficit. During FY01-15, India’s total import bill grew at a CAGR of 16.8% to US$448 billion in FY15 largely driven by petroleum products and gold, which recorded a CAGR of 16.8% and 16.4%, respectively. During the same period, exports grew at a CAGR of 14.8% in FY01-15 from to US$310 billion in FY15.
- To address the rising trade deficit, GoI and RBI took a few decisions to curtail local demand in the petroleum and gold sectors to reduce their imports and, hence, the deficit. Meanwhile, with the recent decline in crude oil prices and diminishing allure of gold, a few problems have automatically got addressed. This has reduced the contribution of crude and gold in the total import bill by ~200 bps in FY15 to 30.9% and 8.7%, respectively, compared to FY13.
- However, looking at the recent trend, the contribution of electronic goods in the total import bill has increased 150 bps to 8.2% in FY15 compared to FY13.
- With the rising trend of digitisation, it is likely that the contribution of electronics goods to the total import bill would increase significantly and may surpass the gold and oil bill, going ahead.
Import of major three items
Electronic imports to amplify structural trade deficit problems
- With an import bill of US$37 billion in FY15, electronic goods comprised 8.2% of total imports making it the third most valued category of imports after petroleum products (30.9%) and gold (8.7%).
- In the last 15 years, the import bill of electronics goods recorded a CAGR of 18.3%, higher than the import bill of petroleum products and gold, which grew at a CAGR of 16.8% and 16.4%, respectively. India’s electronic goods production was inadequate to meet demand due to deficiency in skill level to compete with imported products. Hence, to meet the rising demand, India is heavily dependent on import of electronics goods from China, US and other South East Asian regions. If we dig deep, the main reason behind the rising import of electronic goods is shortfall in domestic production. Local production faces a substantial cost disadvantage constraining investment in plants and equipment, technology absorption, development capability and innovation. Given the weakness in domestic production, India’s growing demand for electronic products results in rising imports. Currently, imports account for 65% of India’s consumption of electronic products in India, up from 63.6% in FY11.
- At the current growth rate, the demand-supply gap for electronics goods is projected to accelerate further from US$25 billion in FY09 to US$296 billion in FY20. This is expected to result in a sharp increase in trade deficit, going forward. Considering the current scenario, to reach the US$400 billion mark by FY20, domestic production would need to grow 37% annually in FY13-20, a daunting task indeed.
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Projected demand supply gap of electronics goods
Import of total electronics items in India
Proportion of phone instruments and mobile phones in total import
Domestic manufacturing lags behind import
- Electronics manufacturing in India is struggling despite huge and rapidly growing domestic demand. Local electronics manufacturing, especially in ‘chip-designing’ facility have remained disconnected from global networks of innovations and productions, resulting in rising imports of final products and dependency on imports for key components.
- Over the years, local manufacturers faced barriers in the form of restrictive regulations and a largely poor implementation of past policies, which stymied investments in plants and equipment, technology absorption and innovations. This could be attributed to high cost of finance at ~11-13% (cost of fund) against 2-4% globally, high power cost due to irregular power supply, etc. This, coupled with higher tax imposed by the Indian government, makes manufacturing of electronic products unviable in the country. For example, India currently has a tax rate of 16% with a value added tax of anywhere between 4% and 12% depending on the state, on PCs and servers manufactured in the country. However, the duty on imported PCs is a mere 17.42%, which makes imports much more viable than domestic manufacturing of electronic products. India also signed the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) with the World Trade Organisation in 1997, which compelled the country to reduce import duties to zero on several electronic products, including servers and desktops.
Currently, 65% of demand for electronic products is met by imports while even the balance 35%, which is manufactured in India, is mainly ‘low value added manufacturing’. Unlike China and other low cost manufacturing Asian countries, India has to shift gears from relying exclusively on “high-volume, low-cost” manufacture to pursue a niche market strategy by focusing on “low volume, high cost” products.
Focused approach to yield better results
The Indian electronic industry (~US$70 billion) is considered to be one of the largest growing electronics markets in the world but constitutes just 0.7% of the global electronic industry. Hence, it is miniscule by global standards. As far as Indian electronic products consumption pattern is concerned, top five products that contribute ~60% of total electronic consumption are: mobile phones (~40%), flat panel TVs (~9%), laptops (~6%) and desktop (~5%). Among major electronic products, the semiconductor design industry and LED are expected to record fastest growth at a CAGR of 25% and 108% in FY12-20E, respectively. Looking at the rising demand for circuit based high value products and near absence of domestic manufacturing, it has now become essential for India to become strong in electronic systems and integrated circuit design to provide a strong base for manufacturing “low-volume, high value” electronic products. To make this possible, India would need to develop circuit design-and-development capabilities (which is largely done by MNCs currently), with India based companies serving India’s domestic market. India’s fragmented innovation system, characterised by weak links between education, research and industry, makes the task even more challenging. The government’s National Policy on Electronics is an important step to address this issue.
Indian Electronics Market: Top 20 Products by TM Revenues (2012)
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Leap from consumer to manufacturer imperative for long term growth
The Indian electronics industry is at a huge inflection point.
From being predominantly consumption driven, the electronics industry has major potential to transform to a manufacturing industry. However, for sustaining structural long term growth, the Indian manufacturing sector needs to match global standards. Concentrated efforts are required on part of both the government and the industry to develop the Indian electronics industry into one of the critical GDP contributors in the near future. In the recent past, global companies have got attracted to India on the back of continuous effort on part of the government and a relatively low cost structure. Companies from around the world are looking to build local capabilities in India not just to serve the domestic market but also to cater to overseas markets. Hence, identification of high priority product markets and holistic development of the ecosystem can potentially solve all the woes of the Indian electronic system design & manufacturing industry.
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