Gold... Black Gold, Yellow Gold
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Addenda on the 12th of July, 2017 -
This post needs to be redone in an orderly and streamlined manner to get the desired effect and impact. As of now this post might have had insignificant effect. That's attributable to some hurry to throw off this post... under the bus.
))
INTRODUCTION -
The way things had/ have been panning out in the transportation sector over the last century... sometimes one is apt to wonder whether the successive central Govts. around the globe ( GoI and... such similar Govts., world-wide ) are... naively/ unknowingly/ unwittingly, etc. or other-wise ways... ARE the best friends and partners of the OPEC cartel ?? !!
Even... as such... the successive Indian central Governments ( read - GoI ) seem to be ( passively, reactively or proactively ) massively stoking the appetite for the massive scale usage of 'black gold' aka all the petroleum derived products in the Indian economy. And... mindlessly... so.
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At a huge cost to the overall national well being ? Since we import a great chunk of the 'black gold' from overseas.
Yet... we never chose to explore/ discover/ invent alternate means and sources of such fossil fuels. Which we could have done long back.
As an aside -
In the USA, Tesla Motors is coming out with a range of rechargeable batteries based electric cars. These might get cheaper, once mass produced, down the road.
))
Now -
The year-to-year stats on our petro products' import bill and the projected future imports ( plausible ) bill... basically points to the self-same conclusion/ direction.
This adds to glee and an almost unplanned booming/ growth to the auto sector.
And, of course the OPEC cartel.
And, across India, almost an exponential increase in vehicular traffic over the past decade... has been causative of nightmarish traffic jams/ snarls in most of the metro cities. Even small towns are bustling with too much of vehicular traffic during the peak hours.
Very disturbingly - the span of this so called concept of 'peak hour' is getting to become rather more expansive...
And... in many a metro cities... the peak hour starts from morning 0800 AM and lasts till 1000 PM in the night !!
Quite a wide band... this.
Well... too much congestion for the roads infrastructure to adequately handle. Again, this goes on to clog on the lungs of the denizens.
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And... am I about to bust this nonsensical traffic snarls abounding the wide world ??
We shall see !!
Now...
In almost all the major cities, metros and towns ( across the globe ) we are faced with end-to-end bumper ( or, bumper-to-bumper ) traffic jams... that many-a-times goes on to... extend to... tens of miles !!
In this context, media reports tell the sordid tale.
Few months back -
there was media report of a 50 km traffic jam in China ( PRC ), that took tens of hours to clear up. Similar situation is reported in Paris, The Bay Area ( SFO, USA ), Los Angeles, Jakarta, Gurgaon, New Delhi, Mumbai, etc. locales.
Yet... as the world population is growing... there does NOT seem to be a clear-cut thinking or strategy, suiting our times, to beat this world-wide menace.... and CONCLUSIVELY so !!
At least... to a great extent... mitigate the effects that seems to be hitting at our nerves... again... and again... and again, everyday, on a continual basis.
And... examples are -
1) increasing road rage incidents,
2) massive traffic snarls,
3) too much of daily commute times that gradually eats out/ gnaws at our lives ( Factually... many people are victim of this grave malady... at some point of time or another. And... that may include my self, as well. ),
4) ever soaring national oil usage/ import bill,
5) Reduction in the Forex reserve,
6) Trade imbalance = Negative balance of trade.
7) Depreciation in the value of Indian Rupee
8) Inflationary pressure on the economy.
As we seek to import more of the 'black gold'... we need to purchase or get hold of the petro currencies in our own forex reserves. The entire process leads to easing of some sort of inflationary pressure on other economies whose petro-currency we seem to be consuming. Now, is this same diverted to the major oil importing countries/ Indian, etc. economies... is the thought that confronts. Now, I am no economist or a finance person... however this thought comes back again and again... so putting the same here for due evaluation.
9) Loss of productivity. Loss of hundreds of billions od Dollars worth of man-hours in these traffic jams.
10) Incremental health problems faced by all and sundry... as the air pollution gets worse by the day. The same adds to monumental health costs.
etc. , etc.
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As an entry to the main segments of this entire post and before proceeding any further on this entire post... do we see a contrarian analogy ?
We consider two usage cases herewithal...
A) NDA-2 PM NaDa Modi imposed demonetization/ note-bandi on the entire country on NOV 8th, 2016.
Never in the history of man kind, in the land of Bharat, such a grand feat has been achieved. Over the last several thousand years' of our known history ?
Yet, overnight, the currency denominations of INR 500 and INR 1000 became dead and worthless.
What the GoI achieved by this mammothly expensive exercise still remains to be clearly outlined by the GoI, till this date. Perhaps they might do this sometime soon. Perhaps the RBI Governor or the Finance Minister.
My own hunch tells me that Captain and mates forced this down the throat of NDA-2 Chief ?
Moot idea is to go 100 % digital ?
Wherein... almost all of the wares ( hardware and/ or software ) are to be imported stuff ?
Clearly, Captain seems to be having the EVM keys ?
So, is that the reason that he and his mates don't give a damn for anyone in this country.
Running riot ? Is it ?
I suggest that - the 'Captain and mates' must somehow see the light of the day.
The only plausible way might be... by taking away their 'mojo' i.e. "the keys".
This might ground them, rather than they be in a perpetual high. Some sobering effect... this ?? !!
Now... that not being the point.
The point is... demonetization was an unprecedented exercise that was undertaken by the GoI. Something we have NOT seen happening over the past several centuries of known Indian history.
That sets a precedent... for an encore...down the line ?
B) Yet again... let's get this clear upfront -
While the Bihar CM Shri Nitish Kumar has imposed complete prohibition in the state of Bihar. And, does this sound rather good ? After all, in poor countries and even poorer and populous states liquor is a social evil. But, contrarily, in rich western countries liquor consumption is an established social habit.
Now...
While "SURA" ( = divine liquor ) was one of the precious products that came out of "Samudra Manthan". And... the Devtas and the Danavas ( ASURAS ) enjoyed the 'SURA' to their complete fulfillment. Perhaps in mutual company. As they toiled together in their oceans churning efforts... pulling on the 'Vasuki' serpent... as opposing groups.
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Digression :
Sometimes I wonder whether the DEVAS and DANAVAS might be the Ida and Pingala Nadis ( Major Nerves serving as Pranic Channels in the body ).
Whilst the devas and danavas worked aound the mount Meru, using the Vasuki serpent as the rope... for churning of the ocean.
Similarly, if the Ida and Pingala Nadis/ Pranas are used around our Meru-Danda ( = the back-bone ) making use of the serpentine power ( = the Kundalini Shakti ) in a certain yogic kriya/ sadhana... to enable the Kundalini shakti ( = power) to awaken and arise through the Sushumna Nadi ( the middle path nerve or nadi ) one chakra after the other. This is Kundalini awakening.
By focusing energies on churning the pranic force or breathe ( = the ocean ? ) in a certain rhythmical manner...
Then... all the 16 'jewels'... all of which had manifested during the 'Samudra Manthan' ( ocean/ sea churning ) activity... may, as well, start to manifest in real life.
Once the Kundalini Shakti ( Shakti = power) or the serpent reaches the Sahastrara Chakra... then the 'Amrit'/ divine nectar starts to drip/ flow continuously from each of the petals out of the 1000-petalled Sahasrara Chakra !!
I guess that highly adept yogins and sanyasins know of this yogic kriya/ sadhana method.
Perhaps - J. Rumi, Kabir, Nanak, etc. practised the same "Nih-Shabda Brahma" all their lives ?
Perhaps... immersed in the 21,600 rounds of breathe cycles every day... by being mindfully aware of their breathe patterns, each and every moment, all through the 24 hours i.e. 24 X 7 X 365 .
Is this to be the highest sadhana for mankind ?
What sayst... Captain... and mates ??
: End of Digression
))
Btw... in a lot of temples around the country, the deity - Bhairav Baba is offered liquor/ wine. Further, wherever there is a Bhairav Baba temple there certainly might be a Bhairavi / Devi / Durga/ Maa/ Kali/ Lakshmi/ Saraswati, etc. deity... ( and, does the vice-versa hold true ? Perhaps so. )
So, if Bhairav Baba in some of these temples is NOT offered his regular quota nay... 'bhog' or 'prasad' of liquor or wine then there are ample scope that HE might be surely displeased. In that case... things might NOT remain hunky dory for the rulers who enforce strictures/ curtailment on their daily 'bhog' or offerings ? is a thought that confronts.
Point I am trying to make- the 'SURA' consumption is so ancient; yet banned by the Bihar Govt.
And those who consume or possess it are branded criminals !! And, sent to jail on charges that are deemed high grade unbailable offences. Many of these guys'll certainly come out as hardened criminals, once sent behind the lockup. Not sure if the prohibition thingy might sustain in Bihar in the oncoming ten years' time.
But, one thing is ceratin and clear- those all people who are sent to jail... their risk taking capacity and appetite wrt the established laws might increase 10-20 folds. As they develop connections/ bondings with the habitual criminals and the entire set of highly incorruptible police and judiciary we have in our country.
Thereby, down the road, their being involved in some incidents involving the law... is something that may not be ruled out.
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Most importantly...
It is high time the state governments focus on constraining the booming population. And, at the same time - bring out schemes and capital investments in order to provide employment to the vast multitudes that are either unemployed, under-employed, partially employed, seasonally employed, etc. And... amply focus on improving the basic health care system around every nook and corner of their states. Rather than making prohibition an electoral plank, if they want to serve their people, their state and the country.
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Compared to the above historical considerations... contrarily...
there was NO precedent ( more than 150-175 years back or so ) of personally owning a fuel driven vehicle, here, in India. Even private or public ownership of motor vehicles was unknown.
So, the "right to own and drive a vehicle" are new concepts we Indians have simply taken from other ( mostly western ) countries. These are the countries that control and command the 'big oil'. Having a singular monopoly on the demand, supply equation ?
And, so... indirectly... the OPEC cartel, as well ? is a thought... that confronts.
It is high time we tinker, a wee bit, with how we own and drive vehicles on the Indian roads. Especially so... in metros, cities and congested towns during the rush/ peak hours.
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This may be effected by judiciously making use of certain changes in - rules, laws, legislations, regulations... all backed by a system and an indigenous military grade highly secure telecommunications network providing the requisite backbone to the cyber resources and infrastructures.
So... is it time that the GoI decides to tinker a wee bit with some underlying - thoughts, processes, etc. to substantially reduce the 'black gold' import that is gradually gnawing at our forex reserves.
What we are considering here is ...
The difference could be couple of hundred billions of USD $, over a decade's time frame, and no less.
What is espoused might be a game changer. So... few random thoughts in this connection.
<< ONE >>
Now... our CM from Delhi Sri ArvKej evangelizes - odd... nay... even... nay odd... in the NCR area.
Going Forward...
I hope this does not set the precedent for other people, going onwards... exclaiming or demanding... nay primes !!
Matter-of-Fact -
I chanced on some internet news that this odd/ even stuff was tried off in the PRC ( either Shanghai or... Beijing ). But failed to yield the desired result. And so... was later shelved/ scrapped. And... rightfully so !!
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Btw... whenever I think of the Delhi CM ArKej... then, his words in 2014 that... if BJP comes to power - "Ye Desh Nahin Bachega" resounds and resonates again and again, in the mental framework.
Not sure why that is so ? And... am not sure if Delhi CM ArKej could have been anyways RIGHT or wrong.
After all he is, perhaps, more intelligent than many of the deeply entrenched politicians that gnaw at the vitals of our country... thereby gorging on the entrails of the nation.
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Seems like... is the Delhi CM ArKej faced by a Brutus ? stabbing at his back at the most (mis)opportune moment ?Whilst he must take up the issue of EVM tamperings ?
))
Now... for making up... for the past mistakes of mindlessly opposing and criticizing him ( as I have always been a blind BJP + RSS loyalist/ follower ) ... I pen this post specifically directed at him and ALL the non-BJP CMs' throughout the country. Esp. the Bihar, AP, Telengana, Kerala, WB, Punjab, etc. state CMs.
This does not mean that BJP CMs may not profit from any ideations herewithal, or some derivations based on the same line of thinking.
And, this post is also directed at... any all govt. and establishments world wide. Esp. Asian, African countries that are essentially non-OPEC ones.
Referring my post from July/ Aug, 2016...
I mean... of all the people "invited on the table"... perhaps I might contemplate adding... ArkKej ?? !!
<< TWO >>
Throughout the ages... populace have had a fixation with... actually a solo pursuit, throughout their lives, for -
"Roti, Kapda aur Makan !!"
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In Hindi -
Roti => Food;
Kapda => Clothing; &,
Makan => Housing.
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Whilst everyday pursuit for Roti ( food, food-grains, nourishments ) is a need, a necessity for the subsistence of the body and mind and, therefore, the spirit/ soul entrapped in the body.
Quest for 'Roti' ensures survival of the human species.
Kapda ( Clothing ) has also been equally important. Yet it does NOT have that much of a daily pressing need, once achieved.
Makan ( Housing ) is NOT so easy to have. After years of hard work and saving each and every paisa, people are able to construct or purchase a house/ apartment they can suitably and comfortably stay in... with their family or the loved ones. Even construct or rent one for business or pleasure purposes.
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Add... to this list... in the recent past... -
1) Bandwidth i.e. internet / broad-band/ Wi-Fi using smart-phones,
2) Usage of the mobile phones,
3) TV, Refrigerator, etc.
Btw... most of them electrical/ electo-mechanical/ electronic items are generally IoT embedded stuffs, now-a-days.
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Btw -
Most of these IoT imprinted/ impregnated stuff/ devices/ systems are imported from western countries, at 'hidden' exorbitant cost.
Perhaps our national security agencies decide the list. What sayst Captain ?
And, the GoI has no choice, what-so-ever, but to sign the bill of expenses ?
))
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Whereas, in the current times, certain of our erstwhile comforts have become our... needs and necessities.
And... in certain luxuries of yore ... we tend to seek comfort.
<< THREE >>
In the current age... having to own a motor vehicle is a need/ necessity for some. Comfort for some. Few of the people tend to see these as an extension of luxurious living and life-style.
For quite a few numbers.... perhaps... an extension of their own personal space. Sometimes... this defines their ego space.
So... have we NOT seen over the years... a massive explosion in the number of two-wheelers, three-wheelers, motor vehicles, UVs, SUVs, vans, mini-buses, tractors, buses, trucks, etc. around the world ?
While these have gone to add certain value to our lives; too much of them abounding... have started posing many a myriad problems for us all.
We try to sort this issue out in a way that goes on to add tremendous value to the... "dishes on the table"... actually the Indian economy.
<< FOUR >>
PRE-REQUISITE -
We may certainly be in the need of a robust, military-grade, pan-India cyber network, solid framework to effect a fail-safe and highly secure ( with a near 100 % uptime ) energy efficient country-wide secure telecom network.
This country-wide robust set of overlapping networks ( basically an offering of... intranet services ) caters to any/ all of the following -
a) intra-district needs and requirements,
b) inter-district needs and requirements,
c) intra-state needs and requirements,
d) inter-state needs and requirements,
e) the entire nation's needs and requirements.
<< FIVE >>
BEFORE WE START - SOME GAINFUL STATS/ QUANTIFICATIONS ON YELLOW GOLD -
Every year we import something like 900 - 1,000 tonnes of Gold ( the yellow metal ) via the official channels.
Perhaps... mostly from Switzerland.
There is every likelihood that another 400-600-700 tonnes of Gold might be smuggled in via the Dubai route, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, Myanmar, Singapore, etc. to beat the high levels of import levies/ taxes/ cesses, etc. imposed by the GoI to deter the consequent load on the forex spendings, and therefore, the balance of trade situations.
So, effectively 900 - 1,000 tonnes PLUS 600-700 tonnes of Gold enters the Indian marketplace, every year.
This equals = 1500 - 1700 tonnes of Gold making way into the country, (un)officially, every year.
Over a decade's time frame, all this adds up to nearly 12,000-15,000-18,000 tonnes of Gold in Indian homes !!
This is quite some numbers. And, considering the historical presence of ancient gold in our country. One can easily guesstimate that the total quantum of gold present with us, in this country might exceed couple of lakhs of tonnes, and... no less.
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Some quantifications follow -
Now, at the current Indian rates - 10 gms of Gold = INR 29,500/-
So, 1 Kg = 1000 gm = 100 X 10 gm = INR 2,950,000/- = INR 29.5 lakhs
Now, 1 metric tonne = 1,000 kg = 1,000 x INR 29.5 lakhs = INR 295 Crores
So, 1,500 metric tonnes is valued at = 1,500 x INR 295 Crores = INR 4,42,500 Crores
Again, 1,700 metric tonnes is valued at = 1,700 x INR 295 Crores = INR 5,01,500 Crores
As, 1 USD = INR 68 currently.
As such -
USD 1 BILLION = 1,000 X USD 1 million = INR 1,000 X 68 X 1,000,000 = INR 6,800 Crores
1 Billion = 100 Crores
1,500 metric tonnes of Gold is valued at = INR 295 X 1,500 Crores = USD $ 4,42,500/68 Crores
= USD 6,507 Crores = USD 65.07 Billions
Again -
1,700 metric tonnes of Gold is valued at = INR 295 X 1,700 Crores .
This is = USD 5,01,500/68 Crores = USD 7,375 Crores = USD $ 73.75 Billions
So, there is a NETT Forex loss ( effectively... a wealth outflow from the country ) of roughly USD 65.07 to 73.75 Billions on account of the domestic consumption of Gold, every year !!
So, over a 10 year period this is actually tantamount to = USD 650.7 to 737.5 Billions !!
Say... USD $ 700 Billions approx.
Quite some colossal figures here.
Now...
Considering/ adjusting the rather high import duty the GoI levies on the officially imported Gold, we may say that the net Forex outgo to be something around USD 50 billions per annum ( apart from the GoI figure that may read like USD 30 billions, we need to take into account the quantum of wealth outgo by havala, etc. routes to get the gold smuggled inside the country ).
So... USD $ 50 Billions per year... for a decade == USD $ 500 Billions over a decade time.
Thankfully... this imported metal... the yellow metal... is a sure-shot store of value/ money/ wealth. And... remains quite intact in the private possessions, around the country. Contrary to the 'black gold' we import every year that goes up in fumes !!
This... compared to the imports of the 'black gold' or the petroleum products that are consumed right away and endlessly churn out waste products that harm our health/ well-being.
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Also... one must importantly consider the imported electronic products/ gazettes that have a limited utility and quickly get outdated and must be replaced by one built using the latest techniques and technology.
We spend a huge amount of national wealth in importing these stuff... tantamount to USD $ hundreds of billions, every year.
<< SIX >>
SOME BASIC CONSIDERATIONS -
Motor vehicle engine capacity vs Unladen weight of the vehicle vs Fully laden weight of the vehicle vs the mileages in either situation.
AAA) A 100 cc bike might weigh something like 100 kgs. And, is designed to carry a load of two persons max.
Mileage may be 55-60-65-70 kmpl
BBB) A 150 cc bike might weigh something like 150 kgs. And, is designed to carry a load of two persons max.
Mileage may be 35-40-45 kmpl
CCC) A 350 cc bike might weigh something like 200 kgs. And, is designed to carry a load of two persons max.
Mileage may be 20-25-30 kmpl
DDD) A 800 cc car might weigh something like 800 kgs. And, is designed to carry a load of four persons max.
Mileage may be 18-20-22 kmpl
EEE) A 1200 cc car might weigh something like 1200 kgs. And, is designed to carry a load of four persons max.
Mileage may be 14-17-19-20 kmpl
FFF) A 2000 cc car might weigh something like 1600-2000 kgs. And, is designed to carry a load of five-six persons max.
Mileage may be 6-7-9-11-13 kmpl
GGG) A 5000 cc truck/ bus might weigh something like 5000 kgs. And, is designed to carry a load of 5-7 tonnes. max.
Mileage may be 3-5-6 kmpl
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Above are some gross generalizations as regards fuel efficiency/ yield.
Here... few things are to be taken into account -
1) the gross unladen weight of the vehicle,
2) The extent to which the vehicle may be laden up with extra weight ( Say, by - increasing number of passengers or the load increased in steps ), in steps, and the impact thereof on the motor vehicle's fuel efficiency.
3) the mileage of the vehicle under diverse situations - empty/ only driver/ driver with extra passengers or a stepped up load.
Fact is - there has to be energy efficiency i.e. wrt the (un)laden weight of the vehicle ... accordingly must be the mileage.
And accordingly... lots of our problems may be solved.
<< SEVEN >>
Envisioned... ( repeating once again. Reference one of the previous posts - 'On the plates... table'. Those other items that can easily be effected. )...
a tightly laid out grid of bullet train network across the country. In coastal regions, the pathways to the same should be laid almost 40-60-80-100-120 km from the nearest shorelines, in coastal regions.
The underlying idea/ concept is to get across from any point to any other point within the country within a period of max. 3-6-9 hours... flat.
This enables to re-connect the entire country, in a 'fast' and highly approachable manner. Secondarily - mammoth economies of scale as regards as better leveraging the most vital factor of production viz. 'human labor' is concerned.
For... greater speed of connectivity translates to lesser travel times between locales. This leads to mammoth saving of the number of 'man hours' that is otherwise wasted in very prolonged ( 2-3-4 days and nights when we start from one end of the country to the extreme/ opposite end ) journeys and very time-consuming daily commutes.
Most importantly - this surely leads to massive scale strategic decentralization.
As, newer facilities ( new spanking well planned townships; industrial hubs and clusters, etc. ) come up over and along the entire stretch of the bullet train pathways. Leading to possibly couple of hundreds of new towns and townships to emerge and be developed anew. every 35-50-70-100 km along the bullet train route.
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Let's say that two mega cities are 1000 km apart. Now, to cover this distance by train an entire day or night is spent. Something like 15-20 hours.
But... let's say that these two mega cities are connected by a fast bullet train network. Then, the approach may reduce to max. 3-4 hours by means of bullet train.
Now, any new townships ( say ) A & B some 100-150 km away from both these mega cities... the distance between the two can be covered by the means of bullet train within around 3 hours - considering an average bullet train speed of 300-350 kmph.
So any person residing some 5-10-30 km away from the townships A can reach the nearest bullet train station within half an hour. It might take him another 3 hours for the journey to reach his destination at township B. Yet another up to half an hour to reach his local destination.
Within four hours his/ her journey is complete. What, currently, takes nearly 15-20 hours + 1+1=2 hours for localized commute time. In total this comes out = 17-22 hours. An entire day is wasted.
These saved man hours can have monumental leveraging effect, to aid the economy.
))
This will have a great bootstrapping effect of pulling up the entire Indian economy to new highs.
Tens of millions of new jobs may be thus created. Capable of providing a massive thrust to the Indian economy.
Most importantly -
this might be a sure and certain hedge against any induced earthquakes, etc. ( owing to ionospheric layers tinkering by inimical nations ) using highly penetrative ELF, LF waves targeting very crucial metro cities/ industrial townships, etc. along any known or unknown geological fault-lines. That may lie some 20-30-60 km underneath.
One may call this - risk mitigation or spreading one's key assets across the nation rather than allowing things like population/ economic growth/ specialized industries, etc. to cluster up and be bottled up in a much lesser number of clusters ( in the form of - metros, mega cities, etc.) around the country, as is historically the norm.
And this is seen to be happening around the growth of a select few mega cities around the country.
Between the major metros... the distances may be covered within 3-6 hours of total travel time. And, this comes at an affordable and competitive pricing.
So that air travel ceases to have any attraction left... for majority of the populace inside the country.
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At the pace our economy is growing... our airlines might need to purchase or import nearly 200-400 mega passenger planes - either Airbus or Boeing make, over the oncoming decade or two.
Even at USD $ 100-200 millions apiece, for these planes.
@ USD $ 100 millions apiece.
So...
200 planes cost = USD $ 20 Billions
300 planes cost = USD $ 30 Billions
400 planes cost = USD $ 40 Billions
Now, at -
@ USD $ 200 millions
So...
200 planes cost = USD $ 40 Billions
300 planes cost = USD $ 60 Billions
400 planes cost = USD $ 80 Billions
These import numbers and the consequent cost of operation of these within the country flights... must be minimized.
The trade off must be a decisive factor. Esp. in the context of the number of jobs it adds. Versus the net effect accruing to the economy.
))
The same bullet train network may be certainly laid out within a span of 7-10-12-14 years' time frame.
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This, in turn, might render our traditional Indian Railways ( mostly laid out by the Britishers ) liable to be used for short and medium range ( up to 20-50-100-200-500-600 kms ) travel only. Something that might not take more than 6-8 hours of journey time. At best- an overnight journey.
Perhaps, when used as long distance goods train they come out cheaper compared to road transport.
So, for longer distance travels by train... one naturally looks towards the bullet train as a viable alternative, rather than air travel.
((
Again...
Excess baggage may be sent in advance by the bullet train passengers, before they choose to board the bullet train.
The same baggage may be claimed at the destination/ point of arrival, by any bullet train passenger, as and when (s)he alights from the train. Readily awaiting the passenger at a nearby logistics desk.
There may be a highly secure logistics company that provides for this adjunct service, on end to end basis, throughout the entire breadth of the country. This same to-and-fro baggage freight may utilize the current Indian Railways infrastructure for secured movement of these 'pre-boarding' luggages, perhaps days in advance.
Or, the booked luggages perhaps arrives a few days later at the destination address provided by the traveler - this is yet another option.
))
<< EIGHT >>
Btw... NDA-1 successfully executed the golden quadrilateral project during the course of their tenure during 1999-2004 at almost INR one lakh crores ( this was the initial budgeted outlay, then ).
This was quite a huge figure then. Not sure what was/ is the actual amount spent/ total nett expenditures, till this date, for this mega project ?
During their second innings ( as NDA-2 )... they are into mega thrust in the (re)construction of state and national highways. Something like 6 or 8 laning of existing highways.
Does all this seem like a real value addition to the economy ? Perhaps... it is more wasteful.
Plausibly so.
All these mega projects cost a huge amount of money as an initial expenditure. And, maintaining such an infrastructure requires recurrent expenses to repair, re-construct and manage them.
This further creates the requirement that certain huge amounts of traffic must flow through these transportation channels. And, in fact, the same highways (re)construction expenditure is aimed at seeing an exponential explosion in the usage of diverse category of motor vehicles.
Observation -
Lakhs of very old trees ( some greater than 100 years old ) around the country... have been cut off by the present NDA-2 Government as a ways and means to widen the roads/ highways infrastructures.
There may be an inherent flaw in this approach. For... this looks like 'out-of-time' context-and-space.
A viable view/ opinion on this is... this entire scheme surely forces our petroleum products imports to spiral out of control, going forward.
The GoI strategic intent and clearly avowed requirement must be.... contrarily... to stifle the oil imports bill... to a certain bare basics/ necessity-driven levels... to arrive at a certain choke point/ suffocation levels.
That is... reduce the oil/ petro imports as much as possible. And... ASAP.
Now... how actually to effect that ?
We shall see if the same is actually possible, belows.
<< NINE >>
The Petroleum Ministry, GoI must consider providing each and every petroleum products consumer ( any and all vehicle owners, generator set user/ owner, kerosene stove owners, etc. ) with their own unique consumer serialization numbers.
These uniquely graded unique consumer serialization numbers ought to be uniquely one-to-one mapped onto the ed consumer's personal identification numbers ( like - AADHAR number, PAN numbers, DL numbers, Ration cards numbers, etc. ) of the end consumer.
Based on and using this uniquely generated consumer serialization numbers for a consumer's petroleum products consuming utility ( vehicle, gen-set, stove, etc. )... the Petroleum Ministry, GoI must issue the consumer a "coupons booklet" ( coming in denominations of - 2 l, 5 l, 10 l, 20 l, 50 l, 100 l, etc. ) the sum total of which might be any of - 1000 l / 2000 l/ 3000 l/ 5000 l/ 10,000 l of petrol or diesel.
Individual uniquely identifiable coupons in these "coupons booklet" must also contain any/ all of -
1) the uniquely graded unique consumer serialization number,
2) The vehicle number or the engine number of the end consumer, etc.
apart from the quantity denominations printed thereon.
3) Again...
instead of the quantity denominations... pricing denominations may be alternatively used/ provided for.
Something like - personalized coupons booklet having variously denominated coupons ( @ INR 50/ INR 100/ INR 500/ INR 1000/ INR 2000 , etc. ) all adding upto INR 5,000/ INR 10,000/ INR 20,000/ INR 50,000 etc. worth of fuel.
A petro oil consumer orders a coupons booklet per his/ her consumption requirements for a month, quarter or an year to the Petroleum Ministry, GoI or the district level RTO, State Govt.
Thereon...
(S)he gets the same customized and personalized fuel coupons booklet delivered to him/ her within 2-3 days.
...
...
...
Probable Usage Pattern :
So, supposing a petrol/ diesel consumer goes to a fuel filling station then (s)he ought to ( before-hands ) provide ( detach from the coupon booklet given him / her ) a coupon to the petroleum filling station operator, corresponding to the amount of oil to be purchased by the consumer.
Apart from paying up the amount of money the fuel costs.
Additionally -
the end consumer may provide his thumb impressions on a log book or a 'live' real-time fingerprints scanner, that is maintained by the petroleum filling station/ bunk. This is for records keeping. Against usage of fake and stolen fuel coupons/ stamps or e-Cards.
i.e. an entry is logged ( perhaps in real-time ) as regards that specific transaction/ purchase of oil. And, the amount purchased by the consumer is debited from the 'virtual account' of the end consumer from a backend server database.
Again... the finger-print credentials MUST be used for logging in a log book or a live/ real-time finger prints scanner.
Question -
In case a fuel consumer has no fuel coupons on his/ her person, then (s)he ought to pay more ( as a penalty ) per liter of fuel purchased ?
...
...
Now... how this might help... will revert to this later. Btw... the reader is free to mull over the implications of the same scheme.
Clue : Perhaps this serves as quantifying an individual's fuel consumption foot-print ? Secondarily, for IT purposes.
This may best be leveraged for increasing the GoI's overall tax collections.
After all - a great chunk or almost all the major economic activities are centered around the usage of petroleum products.
How this serves is for the GoI to figure out ?
...
...
And, are these same coupons to be rerouted back every month or quarters to the end consumers ? To reduce cost. Or do we use new paper or plastics based coupons each and every time ? Or, do we use electronic debit or credit cards ?
Some, logistics company ought to be assigned for providing the same services ?
<< TEN >>
We tend to use our own diesel or petrol driven vehicles ( either two or four wheelers ) in daily life.
Whilst taking stock of some lifetime usage stats of such vehicles, till date... one notes the following facts -
1) A two wheeler &/or four wheeler... motorist/ owner might easily use the same vehicle(s) to travel nearly 20,000 km/ 40,000 km/ 60,000 km/ 80,000 km or 100,000 km over a period of 1-2-3-4-5-10-15-20-25-30-40 years time frame.
In the metro cities, for daily commutes, business purposes, etc. - using up 10,000-50,000 km per annum is NO big deal. Might be the current norm.
Again...
One may easily notice that his/ her personal - total distance covered/ usage stats might be easily over 100,000 km over 5-10-20-30-40 years' time frame.
2) Now... in case of a two wheelers, three wheelers or four wheelers ( carrying/ ferrying people )... one can easily notice that -
a) In case of a two wheelers' usage : 50%-70%-90% of the times the back seat almost always remains empty.
Effectively, we can say that if the 2-wheeler weighs 100-250 kg ( this weight has a certain bearing on the 2-wheeler's mileage. Of course - engine capacity is to be factored in or duly accounted for, for deducing the mileage figure. ) and the driver weighs 60 kg - 100 kg... then -
almost 50 % of the seating capacity is wasted whilst making day-to-day usage of the two wheeler... ALL these 60%-70%-90% of the times the back seat remains empty !! ( THIS MUST BE NOTED )
This is highly undesirable. And, an indirect wastage of the critically imported petro resources and its' usage.
THIS OUGHT TO BE CHECKED. THE GoI, THUS FAR, HAS FAILED TO DO SO.
IN FACT THE GoI POLICIES SEEM TO INDICATE... JUST THE OPPOSITE. INVARIABLY.
THIS POST IS TO DO WITH... HOW BEST TO EFFECT THIS CHECK ON THE RAMPANT PETRO FUEL WASTEFUL USAGE.
SOME CUES... FOLLOWS.
b) Similarly... in the case of three-wheelers ( carrying/ ferrying people )... having capacity to seat 4-10 people... we certainly do find that its' people or load carrying capacity is NOT fully utilized, based on the distance covered by the vehicle in any or most of the trips.
- a 100 % efficiency calls for 100 % occupancy during any of the short or long distance travels between any two points.
Overall, we may see that an overall 10%-20%-30%-50%-60%-70%-80% of the capacity might be wasted in most of the different usage case scenarios... whilst we consider the the 3-wheeler public passenger system.
c) In the case of a 4-wheeler private or public passenger vehicle :-
- For the case of a private motor vehicle that is used for daily commute to work - there being only one occupant ( viz. the person driving the vehicle ) the remaining 4-5 seats are empty ( say ).
This assuredly 'usable capacity' thereby goes to waste. We take this for granted.
Tantamount to... nearly 25%-80% of the motor vehicle's 'usable capacity' is effectively wasted.
Mostly, accruable to those guys who do not carpool. And, so this is equivalent to nearly 25%-80% wastage of the precious petro oil, for the same trip. Seen another way. Note this.
And, this might be a recurrent phenomena.
We see that there is a marked deficiency in the 'economies of scale' as far as the 'usable capacity utilization' efficiency of the motor vehicle is concerned.
Therefore, all this adds up to massive wastage over months, years and decades.
Clearly... while we look at it... at the national scope.
Alternatively...
In the case of a public passenger vehicles. There are chances that the net 'usable seating capacity' might NOT be easily/ readily 100 % utilized, in all of the trips.
There might be chances that nearly 25%-80% of the 'usable seating capacity' might be wasted, on quite many trips.
And, so this is equivalent to nearly 25%-80% wastage of the precious imported petro oil, for the same trip. And, this might be a recurrent phenomena.
And, the cumulative wastage of the 'usable seating capacity' basically boils down to actual forex losses for us; whence we may safely interpret this as having a direct bearing or... equivalently the import of the same amount of overseas oil. Which is congruent to this 25%-80% wastage.
We have to look at - how best to minimize this 'usable seating capacity' wastage.
So...
One may be easily able to guesstimate the amount of accretional losses incurred on this behalf ?
This might be simply mind boggling. Perhaps running into tens of billions of USD $, annually. This is USD $ hundreds of billions, over a decade time.
Point I am trying to put across...
All this can be so easily saved. And... we must.
((
For end-to-end public transportation- one may be able to book a certain slot/ seat at a certain time of departure by using a mobile app or calling an operator at a toll free number. (S)he gets a SMS as confirmation.
Some difference in pricing scheme allows all the seats to be filled up fast... before the same end-to-end public transport vehicle moves on towards its final destination.
If one books first, one possibly gets cheaper tickets. As the booking time approaches the departure time of the vehicle - the tickets cost more and more.
Perhaps, this helps in filling up the seats faster to full occupancy.
))
<< ELEVEN >>
A CONCEPT -
Let's consider the following -
In the case of passenger conveyance motor vehicles ( whether 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 8/ 10/ 12/... 80/ 100 seaters ) the 'usable seating capacity' can be so easily... be cumulatively as well as unitarily ( in multiples of one ) quantified.
This... 'usable seating capacity'... is to be a quantifiable number in each category of vehicle type. This is a MUST.
This is to be used as a basis for ultimately calculating and deciding the "NETT running efficiency of an N-seater vehicle" based on the total distance covered by the vehicle in a - a) given run, b) over a period of time, etc.
Supposing a N-seater motor vehicle is having the N seats fully occupied in all the runs. Then it's gross utilization is at 100 % efficiency.
Again, having 70%-90% efficiency in a N-seater motor vehicle's seating capacity utilization might be highly desirable.
But, though highly desirable, this is NOT so easy to achieve.
Point is - how to effect that ?
Nonetheless, this post is striving to do exactly that.
...
...
...
Another related CONCEPT -
Supposing that one N-seater motor vehicle user uses this vehicle in the course of carrying out his day to day life/ existence.
In the present context, on an average, the nett/ effective 'usable seating capacity' utilization for his/ her motor vehicle might never be 100 %.
Chances are that the 'usable seating capacity' utilization might range between 15%-30%-50%, aggregated numbers, and no more.
So... there is ample scope to increase the motor vehicle utilization, by taking on maximum number of passengers the vehicle may possibly allow. i.e. 100 % occupancy.
...
Now, if someone were having their own private vehicle, then why must (s)he allow a stranger/ acquaintance/ neighbor/ friend/ relative, etc. to hop onto the vehicle for one/ some part of journey (s)he has necessarily to undertake ?
Until and unless there are inherent elements of -
a) GoI enforced coercion or threat,
b) perceptible advantages accruing to the motor vehicle owner,
c) some national interest part that the motor vehicle owner must be proud of, to address, and be a part of.
We'll see how best to achieve these elements.
...
...
...
Yet another related CONCEPT -
Supposing that one N-seater motor vehicle user has 'ways and means' to give &/ or receive discrete unitary units out of the 'effective usable seating capacity' for his/ her N-seater motor vehicle.
Then, there are chances that what poses as an effective liability of sorts ( in effect ) for the entire nation... may be used as a veritable effect-able asset creation as a by-product, in some crude disguise.
Say... what about...
1) transferring or receiving a certain quantity of either petrol or diesel based "units of distance" to or from some third party ?
As a credit or debit transaction.
2) Gifting or even receiving as a gift - a certain quantity of either petrol or diesel based 'units of distance' or a certain corresponding 'units of monetary value' to/ from another individual.
What about receiving or gifting - 1-1000-5000-10,000-20,000-25,000-40,000-50,000 km ? or,
perhaps a diesel or petrol based units worth INR 1,000/ 2,000/ 5,000/ 10,000/ 20,000/ 25,000, etc.
Any numbers in the mentioned range may be gifted to another individual. Similarly, the same may be received in one's credit. Perhaps in some account.
One perhaps effects this debit or credit transaction, via -
a) a digital card or an E-card ( similar to petro distance currency ), or
b) a uniquely identifiable and personalized coupon book or booklet holding individual personalized coupons, having a myriad of denominations... all of them totalling to a certain quantity.
c) Again, the e-card or the paper coupon may be color coded ( as green, red, amber, yellow, etc. ) to convey certain messages about the card bearer.
For instance a red card or coupon may imply a risky individual to have to share a ride ( this guy may have proven criminal backgrounds/ having some terminal ailment/ some highly contagious disease, etc. )
So, there has to be ways and means to deal with such segregates... in order to make life easy for certain class of individuals.
...
...
Any or all of these electronic cards &/or plastic or paper based coupons MUST be backed by real-time digital transactions capability.
This... as in the context of... a debit or credit transaction wrt to any uniquely personalized 'petro-distance' &/or 'petro-value in currency terms' wallet.
Say paper coupons for redemption, backed by online real-time digital transactions - credit or debit based.
We shall consider a usage case scenario way ahead...
<< TWELVE >>
A Usage Case Scenario Follows -
Supposing that person A has a two seater bike. And person B has a five seater motor vehicle. This is used for commuting to and fro to/ from work place.
Now, in case both these guys, A and B, 'go it alone' in their to-fro commute. Then their 'effective usable seating capacity utilization' for their motor vehicles might be -
1) 50 % in case of A, &
2) 20 % in case of B.
This is highly undesirable. For the nett efficiency to hover in/ around the centum range - person A must take along another person to-fro in ride back-and-forth to his errand/ work.
Similarly, there is scope for person B to take on another upto FOUR people on his ride, back-and-forth, to work.
...
...
Now...
In case a third person ( say - C ) wants to make use of any of these available slot(s) i.e. utilise this excess available capacity, then (s)he MUST approach either A or B.
Perhaps - via a local(ised) social website/ web portal reference enabling a prior setup for the journey; or
a toll free number assisted guide/ operator directing C to either A or B.
And, these set of people ( either C & A or C & B ) have to mutually agree before-hand for the 'motor vehicle pooling' itinerary.
Else... mutual vetting may be effected... on the fly...as well.
...
...
Now... mutually... gainfully... utilising the seating slots might require a one-way credit/ debit transaction.
Something like -
A) Person C passes on his personalised 'petro distance' coupon or credit/ debit e-Card to person A or B.
B) Then C calls on a toll-free gateway number. Therein C punches the unique code of person A or B.
If C has a smartphone then (s)he scans some unique QR code or bar code of the unique credentials pertaining to person A or B.
As well... this can be enabled by means of some NFC ( Near Field Communication ) technique/ technology. One that may make use of scanning the QR or bar code of the recepient. This makes things... way too simpler.
Some resident app. on the smartphone may cater to this function.
Otherwise some USSD-based transactions may be employed for basic 2G/ 3G phone functionality sans any data packets.
I guess- the GoI must make this entire process... as a part of some free high speed data service.
C) Thence on C submits the requisite distance that he has travelled or intends to travel... to the toll-free gateway server... this distance has to be debited from his/ her personalised 'petro distance account' OR 'petro distance value' based wallet balance.
D) The same confirmation MUST be made by person A or B as an acceptance. An... acceptance of the transaction.
E) This same is ratified and the same net 'petro distance' credit is confirmed back to the individual - C.
This cycle completes a transaction.
The paper coupon got from C by either A or B may be collected and stored by them for later 'actual' redemption. This serves as a proof when A or B go to credit the coupons in their account. ( The same has to be examined vis-a-vis their electronic record logs for due confirmation. )
Apart from the online backend transactions that serves to ratify the records.
And, later such a set of credited bunch of paper coupons ( got from diverse set of individuals ) may be submitted to their respective online + offline petro-distance wallet account for due crediting.
Now...
How this entire scheme/ stuff is to be effected, is left to the think tanks.
Hereby, at best, providing some raw thoughts... on how best to... effect the same.
<< THIRTEEN >>
Use of a dedicated, highly secure, always available pan India cyber network.
Using almost 100 % Indian components/ internet access devices/ networking infrastructure, etc.
1) a personalised set of choices that serves as a filter, as regards -
a) what sort of people or potential co-travellers get to see your pesonalised profile; based on their own/ respective profile;
b) whether potential co-travellers belong to the same or nearby locality ?
c) what sort of people one may choose to have as co-travellers ? based on age, sex, profession, health conditions ( if any ), daily or weekly commute patterns, etc.
d) one way or round trip considerations. And, probable timings and some variations there-of.
2) social networking site(s) solely dedicated for this purpose. Location specific.
3) having greater interface with other people in the locality to extend the 'circle of reach' / friendly acquaintance... in this context.
4) An always ON ( 24 X 7 X 365 ) toll free number that serves as a facilitator for fixing up co-travellers in a jiffy.
Perhaps, some back-end set of phone operators ( who gets some paltry commission as well. These paltry commissions might add up to a nice number at the end of the month. ) facilitates fixing up the co-travellers for an individual's travel plans.
<< FOURTEEN >>
Our eminent citizens have been allowed to marry only once.
To re-marry... one can marry again if one divorces existing wiife first or, the wife dies.
Similar concept MUST be employed in the case of possession and usage of 'private' motor vehicles.
This same concept may NOT apply to 'public graded' motor vehicles.
i.e. one MUST be allowed to possess only one motor car or bike, at most. Additional possession of a motor car or bike must be thoroughly discouraged by the GoI policies/ laws/ rules/ regulations, etc.
By levying... high levels of annualised taxations or raising the insurance premium.
This acts as a deterrent against possessing multiple 'private' graded motor vehicles of the same class.
<< FIFTEEN >>
Currently...
we got mopeds ( say - brand is luna ) giving a mileage of 100-130 kmpl .
By some indigenous 'jugaad' the same mileage may be tinkered with to provide a nett 'effective mileage' of around 300-500-800 kmpl !!
This is highly possible, one may suggest.
This means that one litre of petrol might serve an individual's short/ medium level motoring requirements ( of around 300-500-800 km ) for almost a month or more.
A few thoughts on how best to effect this follows...
Generally, a moped ( say - brand is luna ) serves the dual purpose of a motor bike as well as backs upas a bicycle.
Meaning that one may easily pedal the moped and this way cycle to some distance, as if riding a bicycle. In an alternative usage... one may switch on the motor and use this as a motorable bike.
Desirable might be - the usage of a 'smart moped' in dual mode, simultaneously, for the best achievable efficiency. The challenge is - is this do-able ? How best to effect this ?
Now, considering that generally most of the two-wheelers are used for short ( upto 3-5-7-10 km ) distance travels... much more frequently than longer distance rides... which might not be the usual norm. Perhaps, even medium distance travels ( upto 10-15-20-25 km )... are travelled much less frequently. Depending on the context -whether town or cities.
We see that, if a two-wheeler owner travels around frequently around his residential locality ( much centered around his place of residence )... then the chances of covering, at best, almost around 300-500-800-1200 km, over a month, is a certainty.
...
...
We shall take this figure of 300-500-800-1200 km per month. And see... how best to reduce the fuel consumption per person per month.
Therefore this translates to individual fuel consumption reduction efficiency... for the month-on-month basis... the entire year.
Again... while we extrapolate the collective figures for the entire nation... this might certainly translate into massive reduction in the consumption of fossil fuels. ... till those time that the fossil fuels give way for powerful ( say - Indian made ) re-chargable batteries.
...
...
In this self same context...
There is certainly a need to strip down the current version of motor bikes... to the extent that a 100 cc engine capacity bike weighing almost 100 kgs. and having a capacity to take along 2-3 persons as rider/ co-riders... must be significantly and efficiently transformed into something like -
a) a maximum engine capacity of 30-40-50-60 cc and weighing something like 20-30-40 kgs, at most.
b) this same is customised to bring out almost a dozen flavours of the same dual-mode 'motorable bicycle' ( actually a stripped down version of a full fledged motor bike ) in different combinations of -
1) engine capacity, unladen weight, and
2) ( potential ) total laden weight, and
3) ideal passenger weight for maximum fuel efficiency, and
4) ideal number of passengers for best fuel efficiency.
Some probable stats in this context, follows :
{ engine capacity ( cc ), unladen weight ( kg ), ideal max. passenger weight for maximum fuel efficiency ( kg ), ideal number of passengers for best fuel efficiency OR the maximum number of passengers allowable } =
{ 30, 20, 60, 1 }; { 30, 20, 70, 1 }; { 30, 20, 80, 1 }; { 30, 20, 90, 1 }; { 30, 20, 100, 1 };
{ 30, 30, 70, 1 }; { 30, 30, 80, 1 }; { 30, 30, 90, 1 }; { 30, 30, 100, 1 }; { 30, 30, 100, 2 };
{ 30, 40, 70, 1 }; { 30, 40, 80, 1 }; { 30, 40, 90, 1 }; { 30, 40, 100, 1 }; { 30, 40, 100, 2 };
{ 40, 20, 70, 1 }; { 40, 20, 80, 1 }; { 40, 20, 90, 1 }; { 40, 20, 100, 1 }; { 40, 20, 100, 2 };
{ 40, 30, 70, 1 }; { 40, 30, 80, 1 }; { 40, 30, 90, 1 }; { 40, 30, 100, 1 }; { 40, 30, 100, 2 };
{ 40, 40, 70, 1 }; { 40, 40, 80, 1 }; { 40, 40, 90, 1 }; { 40, 40, 100, 1 }; { 40, 40, 100, 2 };
{ 50, 30, 70, 1 }; { 50, 30, 80, 1 }; { 50, 30, 90, 1 }; { 50, 30, 100, 1 }; { 50, 30, 120, 2 };
{ 50, 40, 80, 1 }; { 50, 40, 90, 1 }; { 50, 40, 100, 1 }; { 50, 40, 120, 2 }; { 50, 40, 140, 2 };
{ 60, 30, 80, 1 }; { 60, 30, 90, 1 }; { 60, 30, 100, 1 }; { 60, 30, 120, 2 }; { 60, 30, 150, 2 };
{ 60, 40, 90, 1 }; { 60, 40,100, 1 }; { 60, 40, 120, 2 }; { 60, 40, 140, 2 }; { 60, 40, 160, 2 };
etc. etc.
Above matrix... is put forth to enable a free flow of unbounded thoughts in this realm... for some 'value addition' to the basic ideations put forth herewithal.
QUESTION -
What about a smart moped-like motor bike having twin engines ? Capable of using either one or two engines at the same time or neither ? Does this help in saving on the fuel ? Is this doable ?
Some automobile, electrical and mechanical engineering folks might take the inputs from a set of design experts to arrive at worthwhile practical solutions, in this regards.
Again, since this stripped down version of a motor bike which certainly might be having a very sleek, sturdy body and build shall be having the twin features as in a moped ( say- luna ) i.e. the moped rider is able to pedal as a bicycle MOST OF THE TIMES and may use the same as akin to a motor bike.
QUESTION -
How is it possible to enable and effect dual usage ( cycling the moped whilst it is still running on the motor ) at the same time ? This might act as an energy efficient methodology/ technology.
This effectively increases the nett mileage per liter of fuel consumed.
...
...
Now... this saves quite some of the fuel that could have been otherwise spent.
Additionally, we may ensure that these stripped down version of the motor bikes that pose as smart dual-mode mopeds might have a maximum achievable speed of something like 15-20-30 kmph max.
And, they may be designed for riding up steep inclines as in hilly terrains, without failing to deliver on their expectations.
This sort of moped design implementation might be best for an individual for his own personalised need in his/ her given locality.
These sleek and smart 'mopeds' coming in different flavors of -
{ engine capacity ( cc ), unladen weight ( kg ), ideal max. passenger weight for maximum fuel efficiency ( kg ), ideal number of passengers for best fuel efficiency OR the maximum number of passengers allowable }
might be differentiated so, so that these cater to a specific rider based on his/ her body weight ( whether - 50/ 60/ 70/ 80/ 90/ 100, etc. kgs. ) and the maximum amount of additional weight this 'moped' might be able to easily carry. That might be any luggage or an additional person as co-rider.
With the best possible achievable moped usage efficiency and congruent services to the end user ( here = the rider ).
...
...
...
And... the localised ride i.e. the road contours have to be well considered.
Again we consider a typical short distance errand undertaken by a motor bike or a bicycle rider, in a locality...
Based on the localised terrain or road contours...
We consider the following case scenarios -
a) the pathway is almost levelled, both ways. This implies that the rider can choose to pedal or cycle to-fro to/from his destination. This enables him/ her to save on fuel.
b) There is some inclination ( upwards slope ) and declination ( downwards slope ) in the path of the dual-mode 'moped-cum-bicycle' rider. Apart from stretches of the levelled road, in between.
In this case - the bicycle rider can easily choose to cycle/ pedal his way almost 60 % - 75 % - 90 % of the entire to-fro journey (s)he undertakes.
This above is IMPORTANT.
And, this might ensure that a monumental amount of fuel can be saved, around the entirety of the country.
To simplify matters -
Let's consider and understand this...
in case there is an inclination ( upslope ) in one leg of the journey... then there is a definitive need to use the motorised mode rather than pedaling or cycling the way up.
But then, on the round trip there will certainly be a declination ( down-slope ) and as such simply pedalling the moped might work well, in case of a single rider, rather than making use of the fuel consuming motorised mode.
CONCEPT -
This line of thinking considers and questions...
Why MUST most of the bi-cycle users need to or are forced to purchase and use/ ( i.e. basically upgrade ) to a regular or much more expensive motor bike ? That is even harder or expensive to maintain, considering the fuel cost.
And, then contrarily this must also consider why and how the fuel-guzzling motor bikes addiction the general masses seem to have a fancy for ( Esp. with the Bullet/ Enfield type motor bikes ) may be made to dwindle over a period of time.
Point implied is... the new product offerings must make it possible for the current or probable owners of motor vehciles to consider the wisdom of owning a smart dual mode motor bike ( whether it be fuel oil based with twin engines or down the road... electrically chargeable i.e. massively smart storage battery based ).
Btw...
This ensures lesser traffic on the road.
...
...
Again the pricing of some such smart, sleek motorable bicycle ( or, moped ) might be the fraction of the regular petrol bikes.
The minimal pricing of the smart+sleekly designed moped might be something like INR 15,000- 20,000 - 25,000 - 30,000, etc. and no more.
This makes for a viable alternative and a sound choice ( providing the best efficiency ) having the best utility for an individual who frequently and mostly rides all alone, in the neigbourhood.
...
...
...
Concurrently...
Having a public pool of such improvised dual-mode mopeds at some critical places for hire purposes on/ near the highways or critical places around the town/ cities.
This enables one to hire such mopeds at nominal charges, to move about in the adjoining locality. Once done - then return the moped back to the owner or leave it at a next such pooling spot, run by a set of private parties.
Hiring at nominal cost.
This saves on oil.
Chanced somewhere on the net... this same, they are trying in the PRC... this... pooling of bicycles.
In our context... we may try the dual mode smart mopeds.
Example -
Say... one alights from a private-turned-public or public motor vehicle at the nearest spot to his destination. Then, one picks up a smart dual-mode moped for the 'smallest leg' of his entire errand.
...
...
...
Importantly -
The GoI MUST have all the major engineering and scientific institutes around the country ( And... perhaps those NRIs/ PIOs based overseas as well ) as also the stalwarts from the motor bike industry come up together and working... on a R&D project involving such materialisation.
They may use an intranet grid to share all related info. as well for knowledge sharing, brain-storming, etc. in this context.
Some zonal/ nodal highly collaborative focal points ( say, 5-7 ) around the country must be created for effecting this. Duly funded by the GoI.
There MUST be some great rewards for the best working design and implementation, in this context.
Something like INR 100 crores, 75 crores and 50 crores as ( First second and third levels ) prize money for this... might interest a lots and lots of highly intelligent, knowledgable and innovative set of people to form a winning team to effect the right and the best solution.
...
...
Importantly...
Again those of the private players who are so anxiously eyeing a great pie in the domestic 'defence contracts' from the GoI, must take this up with the highest priority.
This enables them to prove themselves first.
And... the only way one can imagine that these guys are good... if these guys are able to design, implement, mass produce, sell, service, etc. almost upto 5-10 Crores of such highly fuel-efficient dual-mode mopeds... perhaps with twin engines - none or either one usable on needs basis... all within a span of no greater than 5 years' time frame.
This provides a great amount of leverage and goodwill about their abilities.
By doing so, we people might be saving almost USD $ 10-20-30 billions of forex every year. This is certainly going to have a major impact over a decade's time frame, going forward.
Btw -
the fuel engines must be so designed to be able to be completely removable down the line; and the smart moped must be retrofitable with rechargable batteries.
Again...
These dual mode smart motor bikes or mopeds must come at a nominal pricing of between INR 15,000 - 30,000.
<< SIXTEEN >>
Numbering and segmenting of each stretch/ slice of road throughout the country. Every 200/ 250 m.
How this helps ?
This helps in uniquely identifying the locales with near precision from where one can 'declare online' or even to a toll free number operator ... a wish to use or be part of the 'motor vehicle common usage' platform.
One decides and announces to provide ( what is effectively NOT a 'free ride' ) one's motor vehicle for usage by certain set of 'chosen' or filtered folks... of one's liking or preference.
Alternatively, one decides to make use of one such service that is provided by many others.
Toll free numbers can be easily used to facilitate quick fix-ups by the service providing operators.
...
...
Effectively saying... and desirable...
Owning a 'private' motor vehicle must turn out to be more of a liability... rather than an asset one is proud of, to possess.
Btw - motor vehicles are actually a liability rather than an asset. They depreciate in value every year. And, one has to pay aprice maintaining them - this includes the insurace premium, as well.
Addenda -
The motor cars must have washable seat covers that can be easily washed every fortnight or a month.
Similarily, for the 'bike-pooling'... there must be two distinct seats ( as was with the case of scooters earlier ) rather than a contiguous seat for seating 2-3 riders + co-riders. Better might be to provide an adjustable or attachable or removable piece of belt/ strap/ divider, etc as a divider between the rider and the co-riders.
The purpose of which might be to separate the bodies of the rider and co-rider by a certain gap/ distance. So, that whilst riding... both of them people are NOT possibly annoyed being in close proximity to each other. For... there are chances that they be... complete strangers.
Many individuals might NOT take to this idea of bike-sharing too well. For this to succeed... the seating segregation MUST have to be effected in the best possible manner.
This is highly important.
<< SEVENTEEN >>
The Petroleum Ministry, GoI must...
Gradually tighten the price of petro oils by ratcheting it up. Perhaps by a factor of 3 to 3.5 ( a rough guesstimate ) over a period of time. This minimises the pinch the GoI feels when the revenue, service tax, fuel surcharges, etc. dwindles down.
This also has a coercive effect on the end users to basically use the 'common motor vehicles sharing platform'.
Basically... a pan India... enforced carpool or bike-sharing system.
Here... it might be important to mention... there may be all-female shares. This might be actually highly successful.
This might be a WIN-WIN-WIN situation.
The recurrent cost/ expenditures of laying out and maintaining major highways... drastically comes down.
<< EIGHTEEN >>
For goods and logistical transportations all around the country...
Making use of cyber portals to register -
a) the availability of goods vehicle in the nearest locality along with the complete profile of the vehicle, the driver and the owner of the goods vehicle, coupled with
b) Availability or probable availability of goods for due transportation between a set of locales. The nature of the good. The weightage, pricing offered, etc. And details of the owner of the good.
This enables one to have the best possible option for transportation.
Most importantly... after delivering a consignment... the chances of a goods carrier returning without any payload is significantly minimised.
The goods carrier owner might have his driver/ vehicle wait for a day or two to pick up another load of goods... rather than return sans any return consignment, on the way back.
The fuel wastage accruable to an empty goods carrier ( say, a truck ) returning sans a load... is preventable, this way.
The GoI must ensure that such instances are minimised.
Bootomline-
Whilst importing 'black gold'... we are in fact exporting our hard earned national wealth... in terms of the 'yellow gold'... in term of purchasing the dominant petro currency from the international market... and passing that onto the ( mostly ) OPEC countries.
This entire episode has a highly negative impact on our FOREX reserves.
I hope that the policy makers with the GoI do NOT forget the year 1991... when we had to submit around > 300 tonnes of our Gold / bullion reserves... and we were forced to massivley depreciate our currency. By almost 90-100 %.
If I recall... from INR 14/ 15 to a USD $... the INR depreciated to INR 30/ 31 to the USD $ within a span of a few months. At best a an year !!
Is it NOT that Iran used to take payment in solid 'yellow' Gold for the petroleum products Iran used to export to other countries ? I think - Yes.
...
...
For each and every trip. Tabulating the same...
Any/ all goods transportation may be necessarily made through the online portals. This process MUST result in efficiency of vehicular traffic usage aimed at curtailing the usage of petro oils.
At the same time not impacting any of the inflationary indices.
...
...
...
END RESULT... / TAKE AWAYS -
Our Forex swells.
Nearly USD $ 25-40-60-80-100 Billions of Forex may be saved each and every year, on account of some of these simple measures taken... these are to be easily effect-able.
((
The same may be used in a major way for domestic production of all the electronic goods and gazettes. This helps in beating down our net imports, in this specific context, by at least USD $ 100-150-200 BILLIONS.
So...the GoI anticipated figure of the same swelling to USD $ 400 by 2022 may NOT really materialise. It may, at best, hover around USD $ 100-150 BILLIONS. And, no more.
The GoI may implement the 'Make in India' this way.
))
So...
The roads become less congested. There may be massive hike in the avenues and opportunities for employment and employment generation all around the country.
The GoI may/ must focus on expending energies on creating network of bullet trains ( our best leverage for the oncoming times )... rather than trying to expand the roads infrastructure in the form/ format/ scale ( that is akin to the system of arteries and veins that are found in our body. viz. - major channels near major organs all around the body... and they taper out as they travel further form these major organs ) that might force the major cities to become choke points and living there... a miserable hellish experience... for quite a few people.
This massively rampant roads construction projects must be given a hard thought. There are chances that many might agree that it is veritably... a complete no-no. The policy makers must have a re-think, in this context, as these guys are laying out/ planning massive capital expenditures. And... this is NOT supposed to be one time capex.
There is quite some cost to maintain a roads infrastructure. This is only possible if the traffic on the roads increases. This means more sale of motor vehicles. Which again implies... more motor vehicle usage. This leads to ever increasing imports of the 'black gold'.
DO WE REALLY WANT IT SO ?
Btw... 'black gold' ultimately goes on to clog the air i.e. the lungs of the entire land-locked cities like New Delhi, Bangalore, etc. And... even clogging our lungs in minute doses each single day any of us is alive.
DO WE REALLY WANT IT TO BE SO ?
...
...
A different paradigm must be chosen to be effected... and the same must be neatly worked out.
That will be wise, judicious investment.
Whilst expending massively on the roads infrastructure, mindlessly, might be an expensive expenditure. And, expenditure... whose time has long since gone.
Again... long diatance goods carrier MUST be allowed to run in the night hours rather than allow them to clog the town and cities roads/ highways during working hours.
Most of the goods/ logistics vehicular traffic must be made to make run during the off peak hours i.e. night hours. Between 9:30 PM to 07:00 AM ; as is generally the norm, mostly around popuilated regions.
...
...
...
Most of the ideations in this post ... are randomly put at different point of times. So, this entire post may NOT be linearly or sequentially readable material. Nevertheless- focus must be on the underlying ideas...the essence... the gist.
Some of the thoughts could have been further expanded. Perhaps... later.
I do not care to be a writer of good readable posts.
...
TABULASSION over, for this specific post, for the moment.
REFERENCES -
1) Why The Future Of Urban Transport Is The Bus, And Not Necessarily The Metro
R Jagannathan - July 26, 2016, 6:36 am
http://swarajyamag.com/ideas/why-the-future-of-urban-transport-is-the-bus-and-not-necessarily-the-metro
2) http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Indias-petroleum-consumption-growth-at-record-high/articleshow/52222854.cms
3) http://data1.ibtimes.co.in/cache-img-0-450/en/full/605069/1460983661_india-petrol-fuel-consumption-petrol-station-fuel-station.jpg
4) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-13/india-s-fuel-demand-rises-to-record-on-gasoline-diesel-growth
5) http://capitalmind.in/2016/07/how-much-more-fuel-does-india-consume/
6) http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-11-25/news/68560927_1_oil-import-bill-petroleum-product-exports-lakh-crore
7) http://www.ibtimes.co.in/fuel-consumption-india-rose-8-year-high-fy16-675214
Fuel consumption in India rose to 8-year high in FY16
http://data1.ibtimes.co.in/cache-img-0-450/en/full/605069/1460983661_india-petrol-fuel-consumption-petrol-station-fuel-station.jpg
Fuel consumption in India rose to an eight-year high in financial year 2015-16. The spurt was attributed to a fall in average retail prices of petrol and diesel triggered by plunging crude oil prices globally.
8) http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/fuel-consumption-in-India
9) http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/Fuel-consumption-grows-67-in-May-import-dependence-goes-up-to-819/articleshow/52849875.cms
10) http://www.indiastat.com/table/petroleum/25/consumptionofpetroleumproducts19502016/379578/914249/data.aspx
http://www.indiastat.com/table/petroleum/25/consumptionofpetroleumproducts19502016/379578/978125/data.aspx
11) http://www.ibtimes.co.in/indias-refineries-go-capacity-deficit-by-2030-686283
12) http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/india-s-rising-obsession-with-diesel-worries-govt/article1-841575.aspx
13) Reference URLs - http://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?country=in&product=oil&graph=consumption
http://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/fuel-demand-likely-to-rise-by-7-3-per-cent-in-india-2771326/
- India’s petroleum products demand is likely to rise by 7.3 per cent in 2016-17 fiscal
- India’s petroleum products demand is projected to rise to 190.03 million tonnes, according to demand estimates made by Oil Ministry.
- India’s Diesel demand is projected to further go up by 7.7 per cent to 78.11 million tonnes.
14) India guzzled a record high of 2.08 million tonne (MT) of petrol and 6.96 MT of diesel in May 2016.
http://www.ibtimes.co.in/indias-fuel-consumption-hit-record-high-may-2016-diesel-drive-economy-686435
15) http://capitalmind.in/2016/07/how-much-more-fuel-does-india-consume/
- The current oil consumption rate for India is 4.2 million barrels per day (mbpd).
- India currently is the third largest oil consumer after US (19.39 mbpd) and China (11.96 mbpd), followed closely by Japan (4.15 mbpd).
As of todays - PRC consumes more oil than the USA.
16) http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-11-25/news/68560927_1_oil-import-bill-petroleum-product-exports-lakh-crore
Given the GoI Stats - Important notes -
- A $1 per barrel CHANGE in crude price impacts the net import bill by Rs 3,513 crore or $0.54 billion.
- Similarly, Re one VARIATION in exchange rate impacts the import bill by Rs 2,972 crores ($0.46 billion).
17) http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=102799
Press Information Bureau, Government of India, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, 28-January-2014
Diesel Consumption
- 70% of Diesel, 99.6 % of Petrol consumed by Transport Sector
M/s Nielsen submits All India Study Report to PPAC on sale of Diesel and Petrol
- 13.15% of Diesel Consumed by private cars and UVs, 8.94% by commercial cars & UVs and 6.39% by 3-wheelers; Trucks account for 28.25%, Buses 9.55% and Railways about 3.24%
- Agriculture Sector uses 13% of Diesel; industry consumes 9.02% including industry gensets with 4.06% and Mobile Towers 1.54%
Petrol Consumption -
- Two-wheelers top Petrol consumption with 61.42% followed by cars with 34.33% and 3-wheelers with 2.34%
18) The Future of the Indian Rupee Is Tied to Oil Imports
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/future-indian-rupee-tied-oil-imports/
- The weakness or strength of the Indian rupee will continue to be largely determined by the level and costs of the country’s crude oil imports, according to Ignatius Chithelen, managing partner of Banyan Tree Capital Management, a New York-based investment management firm.
19) India’s oil import dependence should be reduced 10% over 7 years: PM
http://www.hindustantimes.com/business/india-s-oil-import-dependence-should-be-reduced-10-over-7-years-pm/story-T40ZDcVcn5LtFC9GD9hr8N.html
- India spent $112.7 billion (almost Rs 7 lakh crore) on import of 189.4 million tonnes of crude oil in 2014-15.
- Oil imports account for over a quarter to one third ( > 31 % ) of India’s total import bill.
20) Is India’s growth oil-fueled?
http://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/india-s-growth-oil-fueled
21) India's Energy Import Bill Could Shoot Up To $230B By 2023, Up From Current $120B : Report, June 2014
http://www.ibtimes.com/indias-energy-import-bill-could-shoot-230b-2023-current-120b-report-1607106
22) http://indiatoday.intoday.in/education/story/imported-products/1/485636.html
- Oil import cost - 177.5 billion USD
- In the last decade, India's oil import has risen from around 65 million tonnes to almost 180 million tonnes!
23) India Imports 1957-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/imports
India is heavily dependent on crude oil imports, with petroleum crude accounting for about 34 percent of the total inward shipments.
24) How India can cut its $120 billion annual energy import bill
http://qz.com/247218/how-india-can-cut-its-120-billion-annual-energy-import-bill/
25) http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/indias-crude-oil-import-bill-for-current-fiscal-may-fall-45/articleshow/51084461.cms
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